Phillies vs. Brewers prediction: We’re banking on the Phillies to have their win streak stalled Wednesday

The Philadelphia Phillies keep winning.

Their one-run victory on Tuesday night marked the fourth straight victory, and they’ve now overtaken the Miami Marlins for the third National League wildcard spot.

Win streaks can’t last forever, right? I’m betting this one ends on Wednesday.

The Phillies are a tad overvalued, and shouldn’t be such a large favorite against the Brewers here.

The book is still out on starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, a young lefty with 83 MLB innings pitched.

He’s been excellent across his six starts this year. Still, his underlying Stuff+ metrics (a statistic designed to capture the “nastiness” of a pitch based on its physical characteristics) are underwhelming, and he only throws three pitches.

Expect some regression from Sanchez.

This is a great game for Sanchez to experience that regression. Over the past month and against left-handed pitching, the Brewers are a top-10 offense.

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The Brewers will start Colin Rea, an objectively average-to-below-average pitcher. But the Brewers will have a huge advantage in the bullpen, as the Phillies are missing two of their better relievers (Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez are on the IL) and are stretched thin (Craig Kimbrel and Greg Soto have been used heavily lately).

And, as always, the Phillies will be at a big defensive disadvantage. The Brewers are a top-five fielding team, while the Phils are bottom-five.

The Brewers have some unique advantages in this game, and I project they win this game more than the +140 betting line implies.

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