MLB Preview: Mets vs. Phillies odds, picks, prediction

The Phillies host the Mets this weekend in a pivotal series as Philadelphia looks to maintain its position in the wild-card race.

Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies while the Mets will counter with Chris Bassitt.

Overall, Nola has pitched well for the Phillies despite his 8-9 mark. However, there’ve been instances when he hasn’t been at his best, as he’s allowed at least five earned runs in seven of his 23 starts. That number seems a bit high for a pitcher of his quality.

Nola will need to be at his best as he’ll be up against Bassitt, who has performed remarkably well in his three starts against the Phillies this season.

We’ll explore the line movement for this game as part of our attempt to make sense of where the value might lie in this matchup.

Moneyline: NYM (+102) vs. PHI (-120)

Spread: NYM +1.5 (-194) vs. PHI -1.5 (+160)

Total: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)

Chris Bassitt (10-7, 3.27 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (8-9, 3.07 ERA)

This line has been on the move. The Mets opened at -102 and are now available at a plus price across the board. Yet, according to our Action Network Sharp Report, 60% of the betting tickets are on the Mets, which includes 76% of the money. As a result, this game has some reverse line movement, which signals some sharp action.

If we look at Nola’s advanced numbers, he’s been the better of the two pitchers, given his 2.77 FIP. As for Bassitt, the Mets’ right-hander has a 3.56 FIP, suggesting he could be due for some regression.

However, Bassitt’s been tremendous against the Phillies. He’s allowed just two earned in the three meetings this season. He’s also in the midst of an impressive stretch. He’s not allowed an earned run in three straight starts, which includes five shutout innings vs. the Phillies during a 6-0 win this past Sunday.

The head-to-head numbers favor the Mets. According to Baseball Savant, their lineup is hitting .280 against Nola with a .360 wOBA in 216 plate appearances. That’s after Nola dominated New York in his last start, tossing eight innings of one-run baseball while being out-dueled by Jacob deGrom.

In contrast, Philadelphia’s current lineup is hitting .257 against Bassitt with a .321 wOBA.

Opposing hitters have a 0.0% barrel rate against Bassitt in his past four outings. That’s downright filthy and something I’m not sure one can ignore heading into this matchup.

The Mets won all three of Bassitt’s outings against the Phillies this season, while the Phillies have lost all four with Nola on the mound. And while I’d love to be a contrarian in this spot, I can’t make heads or tails why Philadelphia is the favorite.

Although my model agrees with the current line, are we willing to fade Bassitt, given how hot he’s been lately?

While I lean to New York, I’m more likely to sit this one out and enjoy the game.

Lean Mets +102

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