Skip to content
Link copied to clipboard
Sports Betting coverage provided by Action Network

MLB Preview: Nationals vs. Phillies Pick and Analysis

Finding value with the total in the Nationals-Phillies matchup.

Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a solo home run during the fourth inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, July 6, 2022, in Philadelphia. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/TNS)
Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies hits a solo home run during the fourth inning against the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday, July 6, 2022, in Philadelphia. (Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/TNS)Read moreTim Nwachukwu / MCT

After a surprising 5-1 victory over Mets ace Jacob deGrom, the Washington Nationals were back in the loss column with a 9-5 loss Wednesday night.

Next up for the Nationals is a trip to Philadelphia for a four-game series against the Phillies. Paolo Espino will get the start for Washington, while Philadelphia will counter with its newest acquisition, Noah Syndergaard.

This is an exciting game to handicap because our Action Network Sharp Report is lighting up with multiple indicators recommending a play on the Nationals.

However, my modeling suggests otherwise, and it’s currently on a 3-0 run, which includes two underdog picks on the Phillies during that span.

Thus, to avoid fading our indices altogether, I’m going to pass on the side in this contest and look toward a play on the total.

Nationals vs. Phillies MLB odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: WSH (+185) vs. PHI (-225)

Spread: WSH +1.5 (-105) vs. PHI -1.5 (-115)

Total: Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115)

Nationals vs. Phillies probable pitchers

Paolo Espino (0-3, 3.78 ERA) vs. Noah Syndergaard (5-8, 3.83 ERA)

On the surface, Espino’s numbers look decent as he gets set to make his tenth start of the year. In 29 appearances, the right-hander is 0-3 with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.

However, his advanced numbers tell a different story, as Espino’s 4.74 xERA and 4.78 FIP make him a strong candidate for regression.

Espino is only striking out 6.75 batters per nine innings, and he doesn’t induce a ton of ground balls, as evidenced by his 0.76 GB/FB ratio.

Thus, it’s very likely that opposing hitters have been unlucky that their batted balls are hit right at defenders.

If we turn to Syndergaard, I suspect the former Met is happy to be back on a contender and in the NL East. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Syndergaard is too eager, as he might struggle with channeling his focus.

Although the Nationals traded away Juan Soto and Josh Bell, according to Baseball Savant, this current lineup is hitting .355 against Syndergaard with a .410 wOBA in 80 plate appearances.

Those numbers help to explain why our Action Network metrics are all over the underdog Nationals in this spot.

But since our handicap focuses on the total, here are some trends to keep in mind heading into Thursday’s game:

  1. Philadelphia’s last four series openers have all gone over the total.

  2. The total is 5-0 to the over in Espino’s five starts against the Phillies.

  3. The total is 12-4 to over in the past 16 head-to-head meetings.

Our Action Network weather report projects wind speeds around ten mph blowing out to the right field. According to ballparkpal.com, we could see a 17% increase in runs scored at Citizens Bank Park.

My model projects a total of 9.43 runs scored in this game.

At BetMGM, I recommend taking advantage of an alternate line with a total of 8.5 runs juiced to -130 odds.

Nationals vs. Phillies pick

ALT Total o8.5 runs (-130)