2023 MLB betting preview: American League win total predictions

The last time we saw the Houston Astros in 2022, they were celebrating on the infield at Minute Maid Park after a World Series-clinching victory over the Philadelphia Phillies.

That championship — the second in franchise history and first not tainted by a cheating scandal — followed a dominant 106-win regular season.

Not counting the 60-game COVID-shortened season of 2020, it was Houston’s fourth 100-win campaign in the last five years. Number of victories for the Astros in their only non 100-win season during this span: 95 in 2021.

Save for reigning American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, the main cast members are back in Houston to defend their title.

Yet the team’s projected win total in the MLB futures market suggests the Astros will fall well short of another triple-digit victory campaign.

Does that mean there’s wagering value on Houston to exceed its 2023 win total? Check out our answer below, along with American League win total predictions for the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox.

Odds updated as of 11 a.m. ET on March 28.

Starting pitching, relief pitching, offense, defense, the ideal mix of youth and experience, a winning organizational culture — the Houston Astros still have all the ingredients required of a championship contender.

And barring an unforeseen collapse — coupled with a stunning rise from at least one division rival — the Astros likely will win their sixth consecutive American League West championship in a 162-game season.

However, we don’t expect it to be anywhere near as easy as 2022, when Houston finished 16 games ahead of second-place Seattle in the division standings.

For starters, the team will begin the season without perennial All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve in the lineup. The former AL MVP broke his thumb during the World Baseball Classic and is expected to be out until at least late May.

Houston clearly has plenty of talent to win without Altuve. But win at the rate of the last several seasons? That’s asking a lot, especially with ace Justin Verlander taking the 18 wins and 1.75 ERA he posted for Houston in 2022 to the Mets.

Also worth noting with regard to Altuve’s absence: 47 of the Astros’ first 67 games are against teams projected to finish third or better in their divisions. And of those 47 games, 28 are on the road.

Another reason to fade Houston’s win total: The AL West should be much more competitive this season. The Mariners, who made a big leap last season, have upgraded their roster. So have the Texas Rangers, who finally spent some money on pitching by bringing in Mets ace Jacob deGrom.

Even the chronically underachieving Los Angeles Angels — who still have Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and a (presumably) healthy Anthony Rendon — look better.

Throw in the potential for a World Series hangover — which, to their credit, the Astros avoided following their 2017 title — and we like Houston to regress somewhat in 2023 and finish in the neighborhood of 92-70.

» READ MORE: MLB preview: Which teams offer the most enticing odds to win their respective divisions?

No team exceeded expectations last year like the Orioles.

After winning fewer than 47% of its games from 2017-2021, Baltimore climbed to 83-79 last season — despite entering June with a 21-30 record.

The Orioles completely obliterated their 2022 season win total of 62.5, doing so on Aug. 21, and they were in the playoff discussion through mid-September.

Now the question is can this up-and-coming team that’s stockpiled a lot of young talent in recent years prove that 2022 wasn’t a fluke?

Oddsmakers are skeptical, posting Baltimore’s win total anywhere from 76.5 to 78 — significantly higher than last year’s preseason expectation but quite lower than last year’s end result.

We share the same skepticism, largely because we don’t trust a pitching staff fronted by Kyle Gibson, who is 89-91 with a 4.52 ERA in his 10-year big league career. That includes an ERA north of 5.00 over 34 starts with Philadelphia the last 1½ seasons.

But it’s not just Gibson — all five members of the Orioles’ starting rotation are under .500 for their careers. And three of the five have made just 84 combined MLB starts.

The back end of the bullpen doesn’t inspire much confidence, either. Sure, projected closer Cionel Perez posted strong numbers as Baltimore’s main setup man last year (1.40 ERA, 1.16 WHIP). But he has only one save in 111 career appearances.

The Orioles likely will hit this season — and hit a lot. But not with enough consistency to overcome below-average pitching.

Look for Baltimore to take a step back and finish with 73-75 victories.

» READ MORE: Will the Phillies top 87 wins for the first time in 12 years? Bet on it.

The White Sox were the anti-Baltimore in the American League in 2022, falling way short of preseason expectations. How short? Chicago was the odds-on favorite to win the AL Central last year and had a preseason win total of 92.5.

Reality: The White Sox needed a late-season surge just to get to .500 (81-81). And while they ended up in second place, they finished 11 games back of division-winning Cleveland.

While Chicago clearly was overvalued in the MLB futures market a year ago, the opposite looks to be true heading into 2023. In fact, we like the Pale Hose to have a strong bounce-back season and win the AL Central, so this win-total recommendation simply supports that opinion.

Gone is out-of-touch 77-year-old skipper Tony La Russa, whose players clearly tuned him out last year after a series of head-scratching managerial decisions. New manager Pedro Grifol obviously doesn’t have La Russa’s track record but his relative youth — Grifol is 59 — is sure to invigorate the team.

Most importantly, Grifol has talent to work with. The White Sox return their top top four starting pitchers from a year ago — right-handers Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech.

All but Giolito posted a sub-4.00 ERA in 2022, but Giolito still has ace-type stuff and we expect him to display it again in 2023.

The offense lost big bat and clubhouse veteran Jose Abreu to Houston in free agency. But Abreu is on the downside of his career. Chicago still should produce plenty of offense with holdovers Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal and Luis Robert, along with newcomers Andrew Benintendi and Elvis Andrus.

If Chicago’s bullpen can get by until closer Liam Hendriks returns — he’s missed all of spring training while being treated for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma but is expected back by June — this team should have no problem winning at least two more games than last year.

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