Braves vs. Phillies prediction: Bet on low scoring run total with Aaron Nola on the mound

We’ve got a Braves vs. Phillies prediction and pick for today, and here’s to hoping the Phillies can bounce back after a tough late-inning loss on Tuesday.

However, I’m not betting on a side here. I’m eyeing the total.

There’s plenty enough evidence to bet the Under.

We’re expecting aggressive, 15-mph winds blowing in from right field at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday night, knocking down potential home run balls from hard-hitting lefties like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.

Factoring in this pitcher-friendly weather report, The Action Network’s PRO model projects this total at around 8.1, creating some good value on the Under 8.5s available in the market.

But, outside of just weather, there are actual baseball-related reasons to take this under.

The biggest reason is Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola’s improvements. After a troublesome start to the season, Nola’s velocity has bounced back, as he posted his highest average fastball velocity of any 2023 start last time out (93.8 mph).

Advanced pitching models also show improvements, with Nola’s Stuff+ and Location+ numbers beginning to rebound to 2022 levels (where he approached Ace-level territory).

» READ MORE: Three MLB futures bets we’re making right now, including Corbin Carroll for NL MVP

It hasn’t shown up in the numbers yet, but there are encouraging signs for Nola.

Meanwhile, Atlanta starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver is the quickest-developing pitcher in baseball. He made seven dominant starts at three different Minor League levels before being called up to the bigs, and he has a 2.65 expected ERA through three MLB appearances.

We are working with a very limited sample size with Smith-Shawver, and it’s potentially dangerous to think this is sustainable for a 20-year-old. But the Braves have an immaculate record regarding player development – consider Spencer Strider.

Meanwhile, these are a couple of great bullpens. The Braves lead the league in reliever ERA in June (2.13), and I expect Philly’s unit to bounce back now that elite reliever Jose Alvarado is back in the fold.

These are two great offenses, but we’re getting two improving starting pitchers and two elite bullpens in a hitter-friendly environment.

All in all, I’m projecting a relatively low-scoring affair, so wager accordingly.

» READ MORE: The Eagles are a popular pick among bettors to win the Super Bowl in 2024

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.