Cubs vs. Phillies prediction: Bet on low-scoring pitching duel in the Windy City

We have a Cubs vs. Phillies prediction and pick as the surging Phils attempt to steal their seventh series this month.

It’s been a great month for the Phillies, who have gone 15-7 while climbing back into the Wildcard race.

I can’t recommend a wager on the Phillies today, but I still have a Cubs vs. Phillies prediction and pick featuring our best bet for this Tuesday June 27 game.

There are several reasons to expect a low-scoring, boring ballgame at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. So, there are several reasons to bet on the Under 8.5 (+100) provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

First, the wind should blow in from center field at close to 10 mph during game time on Tuesday night. It’s always wise to bet the Under at Wrigley when the wind isn’t blowing out – plenty of potential home run balls get knocked down in the Windy City during these days.

Second, the Cubs are probably exhausted after playing a weekend series across the pond in London. The team is likely jet-lagged, and bat speed could be way down.

Third, we get two rested bullpens after a day off yesterday, so run production will be tougher in the later innings.

While it may seem counterintuitive to say the Cubs’ relievers are rested after all the travel back and forth from London, it’s worth mentioning only Michael Fulmer was used heavily over the weekend. Chicago’s two best relievers, Mark Leiter and Adbert Alzolay, have barely pitched over the past week.

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Meanwhile, Philly’s bullpen should enter elite territory now that Jose Alvarado is healthy again. He, Craig Kimbrel and Greg Soto create a rock-solid, high-leverage relief core.

Fourth and finally, The Action Network App’s PRO model projects the total at just 7.43, providing us with lots of value on the Under 8.5 (+100) number.

The starting pitching matchup is a concern, given Philly starting pitcher Ranger Suarez and Chicago starting pitcher Jameson Taillon are not elite-tier guys.

However, Taillon is due for some positive regression (6.79 ERA, 5.19 expected FIP), and Suarez is seeing positive regression (1.04 ERA in June). So, I think the market is slightly underrating this pitching matchup.

So, in a game with windy conditions, a tired lineup, rested bullpens and undervalued starting pitchers, smashing the Under is a wise bet.

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