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Home Run Derby: Here’s why we’re backing long shot Adley Rutschman to win Monday’s slug fest

Pete Alonso is the favorite to win Monday's Home Run Derby, but we like the odds for one of the long shots.

Adley Rutschman #35 of the Baltimore Orioles hits a double in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 13, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Adley Rutschman #35 of the Baltimore Orioles hits a double in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 13, 2023 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)Read moreGreg Fiume / Getty Images
    by Kenny Ducey, Action Network
    Published 

Pete Alonso may be the favorite to win the Home Run Derby yet again, but his nemesis will be waiting for him in the first round Monday night.

Julio Rodriguez memorably knocked Alonso out of last year’s event with a whopping 31 home runs in the second round, tiring himself out for the final where he was ultimately beaten by the Padres’ Juan Soto. This year, Rodriguez will match up with Alonso to kick things off in the first round, and he’ll do so in front of his home fans in Seattle.

This could wind up breaking the derby wide open, and I think there’s plenty of value to be found on the long shots.

How to bet the Home Run Derby Monday night

Adley Rutschman has the lowest barrel rate of anyone in the field and will have to face the mighty Luis Robert in the first round, but I’m not totally convinced he should be an underdog of these proportions. After swatting just 11 home runs in the first half, Rutschman enters Monday night as a +2000 underdog to capture the title.

It’s not really that far-fetched. Rutschman will begin the event hitting left-handed which should give him a slight advantage. T-Mobile Park is 326 down the line to right an 331 to left, and if that’s not enough the park factor has favored lefties this year. According to Statcast, the conditions for home runs are 10 points higher than the league average at night for lefties and around two points under the league average for right-handed hitters.

» READ MORE: American League opens as slim favorite to win 2023 MLB All-Star game in Seattle

On top of this, as a switch and and all-fields hitter, Rutschman doesn’t really pull the ball all that much. In fact, his pull rate of 35% is around two points lower than the MLB average and his opposite-field hit rate checks in around six points higher than the league average.

Should Rutschman stick with hitting left-handed and try to take aim at the right field seats as we’d expect, he should be in great position to do some damage here at T-Mobile Park. Oddsmakers are very low on the Orioles backstop due to his meek batted ball stats and expected home runs, but with his game being tailored towards hitting homers he should out-perform his projections.

The bet: Adley Rutschman +2000

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