Marlins vs. Phillies prediction: Bet Philly as a home underdog vs. Miami’s ace Monday night

The Philadelphia Phillies are 0-for-2 against high-level aces in the early going of the 2023 season.

After falling to Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers on Opening Day, the Phillies got carved up by the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole in Thursday’s capper of a three-game series in New York.

Philadelphia gets opportunity No. 3 against an elite hurler on Monday when Miami Marlins ace and reigning National League Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara takes the mound in the opener of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.

The MLB wagering market is squarely on Alcantara’s side in this one, as he and the Marlins opened as a slim -115 road favorite and are now as high as -130 at multiple sportsbooks.

The price hike isn’t ideal, but it’s understandable — Alcantara is that good. However, the right-hander hasn’t been that good against Philly lately, which is why we’re backing the home ’dog with our Marlins vs. Phillies prediction.

Odds updated as of 11 a.m. ET on April 10.

Alcantara was spectacular against the Minnesota Twins in his most recent outing on Tuesday, pitching a complete-game three-hit shutout while needing just 100 pitches and less than two hours to secure a 1-0 home victory.

It was a total reversal of Alcantara’s Opening Day start, when the right-hander surrendered three runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Mets (losing 5-3). But it was highly reminiscent of his 2022 season, when Alcantara coasted to his first Cy Young Award.

Not only did the 27-year-old Dominican go 14-9 with 2.28 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, but he posted a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio (207 Ks, 50 BBs) and allowed just 16 homers in a league-high 228 2/3 innings.

But here’s the thing about those stellar 2022 numbers: They didn’t really come at the Phillies’ expense.

Six of Alcantara’s 32 starts in 2022 were against Philadelphia, and Miami only won two of them. Alcantara’s numbers: 1-3 with a 3.16 ERA overall and 0-1 with a 3.80 ERA in three games at Citizens Bank.

We know what you’re likely thinking: “Yeah, but Alcantara had to face Phillies sluggers Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins last season, and neither will be on the field Monday night.”

So we looked it up and Harper (four games) and Hoskins (all six) combined to go just 6-for-27 (.222 average) against Alcantara last season with one extra-base hit (a Harper double) and two RBI (both by Harper).

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The Marlins’ struggles to beat the Phillies with their ace on the bump aren’t just isolated to last season. Since late May of the 2021 campaign, Philadelphia is 7-2 against Miami when Alcantara starts, including 3-1 at home.

Of course, it must be noted that the 2023 Phillies aren’t exactly off to a great start. They fell to 3-6 on the season Sunday after failing to safeguard a 4-2 lead against the Reds, giving up a run in the eighth and three in the ninth to fall 6-4.

And Philadelphia’s offense continues to be stuck in neutral. Since putting up seven runs on Opening Day (an 11-7 loss at Texas), the Phillies have averaged just 2.9 runs per game and have tallied more than four runs just once (Friday’s 5-2 win over Cincinnati).

That said, Philly’s offense is actually outproducing Miami’s in multiple key categories, including runs scored (30-27), batting average (.261-.230) and OPS (.737-.684). The Phillies also have more doubles (19-10), more triples (5-1) and fewer strikeouts (92-95).

Does this mean we expect Philadelphia to light up Alcantara on Monday? Hardly. But we also don’t expect the Marlins to do much against Phillies lefty Matt Strahm, who was terrific in his first start Tuesday.

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Strahm held the powerful Yankees’ lineup to one hit and one walk while striking out three in four innings. Strahm didn’t pitch the required five innings to earn a victory, but the Phillies prevailed 4-1 as a sizable underdog.

They’re less of an underdog Monday at home, but we’re calling for a similar result: a low-scoring final score with Philadelphia coming out on top.

Moneyline: Marlins (-130) @ Phillies (+120)

Run Line: Marlins -1.5 (+135) @ Phillies +1.5 (-160)

Total: 8 runs (Over +100/Under -120)

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