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2023 MLB futures predictions, odds, picks: The betting favorites to lead MLB in home runs

Analyzing the regular season home run leader market to see if there’s any value.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 17: Jorge Soler #12 of the Miami Marlins hits a home run against the Washington Nationals during the fourth inning at loanDepot park on May 17, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 17: Jorge Soler #12 of the Miami Marlins hits a home run against the Washington Nationals during the fourth inning at loanDepot park on May 17, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)Read moreMegan Briggs / Getty Images

Pete Alonso is the current MLB leader in home runs, and his 20 are three more than any other hitter in baseball.

So, the Polar Bear is rightfully the MLB betting favorite to lead the league in home runs.

However, there are a few batters on Alonso’s tail, and I think one of them is worth a wager in this market.

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

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2023 MLB futures predictions: Favorites to lead MLB in home runs

Atop the market is Alonso, sitting at (+270) on FanDuel.

Directly behind Alonso is defending AL MVP Aaron Judge, who sits at (+410) with 15 home runs. It’s worth mentioning that Judge missed two weeks between late April and early May yet has slammed nine home runs in 83 plate appearances since returning to play – he’s the hottest hitter in baseball.

In the second tier behind those two sluggers is Matt Olson (+1100). The Braves first baseman slammed two long balls on Sunday Night Baseball this week to bring his total to 16.

It’s worth mentioning Olson has never reached 40 homers in a season.

In the third tier is the trio of Jorge Soler (+1600), Mike Trout (+1900) and Max Muncy (+2100). I think it may be interesting to target one of these three in the market.

Here are the top 10 hitters on the home-run betting leaderboard:

  1. Pete Alonso: +270

  2. Aaron Judge: +410

  3. Matt Olson: +1100

  4. Jorge Soler: +1600

  5. Mike Trout: +1900

  6. Max Muncy: +2100

  7. Shohei Ohtani: +2500

  8. Kyle Schwarber: +2500

  9. Yordan Alvarez: +2500

  10. Rafael Devers: +2500

» READ MORE: MLB futures: Re-analyzing the Phillies futures odds after seven weeks

2023 MLB futures predictions: Soler Power

Among the five batters to have at least 15 home runs this season, only Jorge Soler has a “No-Doubter” home run rate above 50% (A “No-Doubter” is a home run that would be a home run in all 30 parks). Soler is the only hitter in baseball with double-digit No Doubters (10).

Obviously, not all ballparks are created equal. A home run hitter can get lucky or unlucky with a deep fly ball, depending on which city they’re playing in that day.

Baseball Savant uses this information to create an Expected Home Runs metric, which accounts for different variables from different parks (temperature, elevation, run environment) to cut through the luck factor.

Only two hitters in baseball have more than 16 expected home runs: Alonso with 16.8 and Soler with 16.2.

So, there are two things to consider.

First, Alonso has slightly overperformed compared to expectations. It’s not unreasonable to expect his home-run pace to slow down – his 27% HR/FB rate is about 7% higher than his 2020 and 2021 numbers.

Second, we can reasonably expect Soler to keep on his current home-run-hitting pace. His 17 home runs aren’t some stroke of luck, and his expected slugging is actually 50 points higher than his actual slugging (.604 xSLG, .563 SLG), so we could potentially expect positive regression (and more home runs).

There’s a chance that Alonso will let up his current hold on the home run lead, and Soler seems like the most likely candidate to overtake that throne.

And at 16-to-1, Soler is grossly mispriced in this market. If you’re going to take a shot with anyone in this market, I’d take a flier on Soler.

» READ MORE: Golden Knights vs. Stars prediction: Backing Dallas is best bet for Game 6

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.