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Phillies vs. Giants prediction: With reliever Connor Brogdon starting for the Phils, bet on plenty of runs

Expect a lot of runs when the Phillies and Giants meet Monday night.

Bryce Harper (right) of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts with Kyle Schwarber after Harper was tagged out at the plate at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Bryce Harper (right) of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts with Kyle Schwarber after Harper was tagged out at the plate at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)Read moreHarry How / Getty Images

Philadelphia travels to San Francisco to start a three-game set, so we have a Phillies vs. Giants prediction for Monday’s Game 1.

These teams profile very similarly, with solid offenses, poor defenses and questionable pitching, all adding up to a .500 record. So, it’s easy to see why I’m expecting a high-scoring series in San Francisco this week.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

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Phillies vs. Giants Odds

Moneyline: Phillies (+100) vs. Giants (-120)

Spread: Phillies +1.5 (+150) vs. Giants -1.5 (+170)

Total: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)

Phillies vs. Giants Prediction: Pick

  1. Over 9 (+100) | Play to 9 (-105)

Phillies vs. Giants Prediction: Analysis

The Phillies and Giants are two of the worst defensive teams in baseball. The Phillies have significant issues in the outfield, while the Giants are slow all over the diamond.

Some of the early 2023 numbers are misleading, likely based on a smaller sample size, but both teams were bottom-five defensively over the past two seasons and project as bottom-10 this year.

And the Phillies may be going through a defensive identity change. Bryce Harper’s return to the lineup forces more fielding duties on Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, two notoriously bad defensive players.

Either way, poor defense tends to create higher-scoring games.

Meanwhile, both offenses are above average by wRC+, and the Phillies are getting a boost from Harper’s return.

» READ MORE: Kraken vs. Stars odds, prediction: Will Dallas deliver at home in Game 7?

A more significant part of this handicap is the starting pitching matchup. Philadelphia starter Connor Brogdon and San Francisco starter Alex Wood are two monstrously overvalued pitchers.

Brogdon, a reliever, checks in with a 2.61 ERA but a 3.74 expected ERA and 4.57 expected FIP. He has average stuff and an average batted-ball profile but is getting lucky with a .276 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate.

Meanwhile, Wood boasts a stellar 2.45 ERA, but only through 11 innings of work. Meanwhile, his horrific batted-ball profile (91.9 mph average Exit Velocity, 9.1% Barrel Rate) projects a 5.22 expected ERA, and he’s walked 13% of batters faced.

I’m relatively high on both bullpens, but not high enough to talk me out of the over 9 (+100) available at Caesars. The poor defense and overvalued starting pitchers tell me the market isn’t setting the total high enough.

Our Action Network PRO model projects the total closer to 9.15, so I feel good about the value in the current market number.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.

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