Phillies vs. Rangers prediction: Opening Day best bet is on the 5-inning line

It’s been less than five months since the Philadelphia Phillies’ magical World Series run ended in a disappointing Game 6 loss to the Astros in Houston.

In the interim, the Phillies have added some big pieces (namely, free agents Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker) and lost some big pieces (namely, Bryce Harper to a season-delaying injury and Rhys Hoskins to a season-ending injury).

Perhaps most important of all, Philadelphia retained many of the key components that helped the team go from the 12th and final 2022 playoff entrant to two wins away from a world championship.

Now the Phillies begin the quest of defending their National League pennant as they open the 2023 season Thursday afternoon in the same state where their 2022 campaign ended: Texas.

That’s not the only Opening Day irony, as Philadelphia’s hitters will be facing an old National League East nemesis: Jacob deGrom. The two-time Cy Young Award-winner with the New York Mets and new ace of the Texas Rangers will oppose Phillies veteran right-hander Aaron Nola.

Oddsmakers have the home team as a slight favorite. Here’s why you should consider betting on that home team — but not for the whole game.

Odds updated as of 3:45 p.m. ET on March 29.

An arm injury in spring training cost deGrom the first four months of the 2022 season. But when he finally did take the mound for New York on Aug. 2 in Washington, he toyed with the Nationals, going six innings while allowing one run, three hits, no walks and recording six strikeouts.

Why do we bring up that game — one the Mets somehow lost 5-1? Because it was the most recent season-debut gem in a long list of them for deGrom.

Going back to his first MLB start — a home game against the Yankees on May 15, 2014 — deGrom’s nine season debuts have yielded the following stats: 52 2/3 innings pitched (at least five innings in every start), six total runs allowed (one or zero in eight of nine games), 33 hits, 10 walks and 61 strikeouts.

DeGrom’s corresponding ERA and WHIP in those nine starts: 1.03 and 0.82.

Translation: The Phillies’ offense would’ve been up against a wall Thursday even if Harper and Hoskins were in uniform. Without those two big bats? There figures to be a lot of zeros next to Philadelphia’s linescore — at least as long as deGrom is on the mound.

» READ MORE: Phillies shortstop Trea Turner is favored to lead the MLB in hits, but what about stolen bases?

Which brings us to our recommendation of a first-five innings wager on deGrom and the Rangers: Despite one sensational debut outing by deGrom after another in the last nine years, the Mets only went 4-5.

Simply put, deGrom didn’t get any run support and/or help from his bullpen — which was a common theme throughout his tenure in Queens, no matter when he took the mound. DeGrom could be headed for a similar situation in Texas. Because outside of shortstop Corey Seager and second baseman Marcus Semien, the Rangers have a ton of offensive question marks.

But all Seager, Semien and their teammates need to do Thursday is scratch out two runs — and maybe even just one — through the first five innings and there’s a strong chance we’ll cash this bet.

» READ MORE: 2023 MLB betting preview: National League win total predictions

You already know one reason why (deGrom’s debut dominance). The other reason? Nola has not been particularly strong out of the gate.

Over the last five years, he’s posted a 3.68 ERA in his first outing of the season. And in the last three years, he’s started the campaign allowing 4, 2 and 4 runs.

Admittedly, the majority of those 10 runs were allowed after the fifth inning. Again, though, if deGrom is on his game like he usually is, Texas won’t have to do very much offensively against Nola to take a lead into the sixth inning — which is all we’re looking for.

First 5 innings

Full Game

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