Tigers vs. Phillies prediction: Bet on low-scoring game in Philadelphia

The Phillies enter this game as winners of three straight, while the Tigers come in as losers of four straight. What a way to set up our Tigers vs. Phillies prediction.

A starting pitching between Taijuan Walker and Tyler Alexander generally indicates a higher-scoring game.

Yet, I see both offenses struggling on Tuesday.

Odds via FanDuel.

So, Walker and Alexander have a combined ERA of around 6.00. But that doesn’t tell the entire story.

Walker’s strand rate sits about 5% lower than the league average (67%), meaning he’s getting a tad unlucky. Meanwhile, his ground-ball rate is way up, and his batted-ball profile is surprisingly fine.

So, Walker pairs his ERA with an expected ERA and FIP of around 4.75. He’s due for some positive regression.

Similarly, Alexander boasts an extremely low strand rate (50%) but couples it with an extremely high BABIP (.342). So, that 6.38 ERA is unrepresentative of his true performance.

Instead, I’d look at Alexander’s peripherals, which include a 4.48 expected ERA and 4.18 expected FIP.

Overall, these are two supremely unlucky, and thereby undervalued, pitchers.

Meanwhile, Tuesday presents a great get-right spot for both guys.

The Tigers haven’t been able to hit right-handed pitching all season, ranking second-to-last in OPS against the side (.634), only ahead of the dreadful Oakland A’s. Detroit boasts a fairly right-handed-hitting heavy lineup, so it makes sense.

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Conversely, the Phillies have struggled against southpaws, ranking 21st in OPS (.722) and wRC+ (94) against the left side. The Phils boast five lefties in their regular nine-man lineup (Schwarber, Harper, Stott, Marsh, Clemens) and another on their bench (Stubbs), and only Castellanos truly smashes left-handed pitching.

The Phillies’ lineup construction plays into most left-handed pitcher’s strengths, but it especially helps Alexander. Alexander’s kitchen-sink, deception-based approach generally only works against lefties, and he can get destroyed when he faces too many righties multiple times through the order.

Given that he’s a traditional reliever making his first start this year, I’d expect more of a bullpen day from Detroit. So, it could even be a great day for Alexander, who could string together four or five shutout innings against mostly lefties.

Besides, a bullpen day might not be bad, given both relief units enter this matchup almost fully rested.

The Tigers also boast a top-10 defense, so I’m unsure where run production comes from today.

The Action Network App’s PRO model projects this total at only 8.7, so we’re getting great value on the under 9.5 (-122) available at FanDuel.

But if you can find a 9 closer to even money, that’s probably good too. Expect a boring game at Citizens Bank on Tuesday.

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