Bet on Nationals to build early lead over Phillies, Ranger Suarez in Monday’s matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies took a series from Kansas City over the weekend, so they’ve built a small lead in the Wildcard race. These Phillies now sit tied atop the NL Wildcard standings with the Giants and three games ahead of the Cubs.

A home series against the Nationals is the perfect time for the Phillies to take another series and further cement their status atop the NL Wildcard race.

However, I think this is a sneaky good game to bet the Nationals as huge plus-money underdogs. There’s a lot of value in this line today.

The Nats boast a sneaky good lineup for a last-place squad. Between Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses, Stone Garrett and CJ Abrams, Washington can post crooked numbers often.

And you might not know this about the Nationals, but they crush left-handed pitching. The Nationals are the 12th-best lineup against southpaws on the year (109 wRC+) and the fifth-best over the past month (131 wRC+).

The Phillies are starting Ranger Suarez on Monday, who is left-handed.

I am thrilled to be betting on the Nationals against Suarez.

Not only are the Nats a great lefty-hitting offense, but Suarez is a pitcher I’m low on.

Suarez is a middling pitcher who isn’t good or great in any area. His batted-ball profile is average, his Stuff+ metrics are below average, and his 12.6% strikeout minus walk rate is well below average.

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Suarez is a mid-4.00s ERA lefty starter, and that’s all you can say about him.

The Nationals are starting Trevor Williams, who is not a righty you should bet on frequently. However, I don’t project a huge difference between him and Suarez, and the Phillies boast a bottom-10 offense against right-handed pitching over the past month (88 wRC+, 21st).

I don’t want to get involved with the bullpens, given the Phillies have such a monster advantage in that area.

However, if you have blindly bet $100 on the Nationals on the first five innings ML every time they’ve faced off against a southpaw starter, you’d be up over $450 on the season, good for an 11.3% ROI over a 40-game sample size.

So, why fix what’s broken?

The Nats are a great bet on the F5 ML today. I think they crush Suarez, and hopefully, Williams keeps the Phillies’ bats at bay.

We’re getting a great plus-money price to bet on Washington.

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