76ers vs. Hawks prediction: Target the first quarter of Friday night’s Hawks-Sixers game

With only two games left in the regular season, the Atlanta Hawks (41-39) know they will be among the four teams in the playoff play-in tournament. The only thing left to determine is whether they’ll be an eighth or a ninth seed.

If we turn to the Philadelphia 76ers, they’re locked into the No. 3 seed and coming off a disappointing 129-101 loss to the Heat at home. However, there’s little motivation for the 76ers, given where they sit in the standings.

In this preview, I’ll share why bettors might need some creativity in finding an edge in this matchup.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: PHI +10.5 (-200) vs. ATL -10.5 (+170)

Moneyline: PHI (+375) vs. ATL (-500)

Total: Over 235.5 (-115) | Under 235.5 (-105)

Although the Hawks are locked into the playoff play-in tournament, they still have something tangible to play for, given the difference between being an eighth seed vs. a ninth seed.

If Atlanta finishes eighth in the conference, it’ll face Miami once the tournament begins. And if it wins the game, it’ll advance to the playoffs as the seventh seed.

However, if it loses, it’ll face the No. 9 vs. No. 10 winner for a chance to advance to the postseason as the eighth seed.

Thus, the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game has two opportunities to reach the postseason. In contrast, the No. 9 vs. No. 10 loser is immediately eliminated from contention.

Since these games aren’t your typical handicap, I don’t think relying heavily on modeling or advanced metrics makes much sense. Instead, examining where the motivation lies is more beneficial while also paying attention to coachspeak.

The 76ers have lost five of their past eight games, and while head coach Doc Rivers wasn’t pleased with his team’s effort, he acknowledged the difficulty in playing a game with very little at stake.

“We didn’t come to play,” Rivers told reporters after the game. “We didn’t have great energy. ... a tough game to have energy, honestly.”

» READ MORE: NBA championship futures: Clippers, Cavaliers worth betting as title long shots

The last part of Rivers’ comment is critical because you rarely hear coaches almost excuse their players for not playing with enough energy. Based on that admission, I don’t expect much defensive intensity from the 76ers for the remainder of the regular season.

The Hawks opened as 6.5-point favorites, and it’s now as is as high as 10.5. We’ve also seen the total swell to 236 after opening at 231.5.

While this game certainly has the makings of a high-scoring affair, I feel a bit priced out at the current number.

After considering multiple options, I think the best solution is to target the alternate over in the first quarter at 59.5 (-140).

The first quarter is when teams are most vulnerable defensively, and an early fast pace could set up how the rest of the game plays out.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer