Bulls vs. Heat prediction: Back underdog Chicago to get it done and move on

The Chicago Bulls needed an upset victory north of the border Wednesday to keep their season alive, and they got it. Now Chicago needs another upset victory — this time on Friday in South Beach — to once again keep its season alive.

Is such a victory unlikely? If you believe the oddsmakers, yes. If you believe in recent history, not at all.

Because while the host Miami Heat are a 5.5-point favorite to take Friday’s NBA play-in tournament elimination game and earn the Eastern Conference’s No. 8 seed, the Bulls will hit the court as the more confident squad.

The reason? Chicago is 3-0 against the Heat this season — despite being an underdog in all three contests.

Is that enough to convince us to grab the points with the Bulls on Friday night? You better believe it.

Odds updated as of 4 p.m. ET on April 13.

It would be inaccurate to suggest that we’re still licking our wounds following the first four NBA play-in tournament games. Only because it’s difficult to do so when you’re actively searching for tourniquets to stop the waterfall-like hemorrhaging.

In case you missed it, we backed all four NBA play-in tournament favorites on Tuesday and Wednesday. And all four misfired badly (including a first-half recommendation on the Lakers over Minnesota).

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The one that stings the most? It has to be laying 5.5 points with the Heat in Tuesday’s No. 7 vs. No. 8 game against the Hawks.

We fell for Miami’s late-season 4-1 surge, overlooking the fact that three of those wins were against the Magic, Mavericks and Pistons, while the fourth was a 28-point blowout of a 76ers team that had nothing to play for.

And while cognizant of the reality that the Heat finished tied with Dallas for the NBA’s worst point-spread record and one game behind Dallas for the worst ATS mark at home, we consciously chose to ignore it.

Surely the Heat will show up ready to roll at home against a flawed, inferior Hawks team, we thought.

Nope.

Atlanta raced out to a 36-27 lead after the first quarter, took a 65-50 advantage into halftime and cruised to a 116-105 upset win.

Just how bad was the decision to back the Heat in that contest? They scored the first basket of the game … and never had another lead the rest of the night.

The Bulls, on the other hand, displayed the fortitude in their play-in game at Toronto that Miami lacked against Atlanta.

Trailing by 17 points late in the third quarter Wednesday night, Chicago clawed back, took a one-point lead with 4 1/2 minutes to play and held on for a 109-105 upset as a 5.5-point underdog.

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So even though Miami is in the more advantageous position — two days off and playing a second home game while Chicago goes from Toronto to South Beach with only a one-day respite — we can’t possibly recommend laying the points here.

Not when the Bulls are an NBA-best 9-2 on the road since March 1. Not when the Heat are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 home games. And not when the Bulls flat-out owned Miami during the regular season.

The results of the three head-to-head clashes:

OK, so Miami superstar Jimmy Butler didn’t play in the middle game. But Zach LaVine — Chicago’s leading scorer who poured in 39 points against the Raptors on Wednesday — didn’t play in the first matchup.

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Anyway you view it, the Bulls easily won all three games by margins of 8, 10 and 14 points.

As much as anything, though, we’re fading the Heat on Friday because they simply don’t seem to have the same fire they had last year when they were the top seed in the Eastern Conference.

All you have to do is compare Miami’s on-court and point-spread records this season (44-39 SU, 30-50-3 ATS) with last season (53-29, 46-35-1 ATS) to realize something is off with a squad that didn’t have much turnover from 2021-22.

So even though the Heat have the Bulls beat when it comes to overall talent (as well as depth), that doesn’t always translate when the ball goes up in the air. Sometimes heart and will — which Chicago displayed against Toronto and Miami didn’t against Atlanta — wins the day.

We saw that in three regular-season Bulls-Heat battles. And we won’t be shocked if we see it again Friday.

Just to be safe, though, we’re recommending taking the points. But we certainly wouldn’t try to talk you out of a Chicago moneyline wager if you’re inclined to go in that direction.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.