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Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 prediction: Marcus Smart will go down swinging

Our top player props for Celtics vs. Heat Game 4.

MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 21: Marcus Smart #36 of the Boston Celtics drives against Caleb Martin #16 of the Miami Heat during the second quarter in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals at Kaseya Center on May 21, 2023 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 21: Marcus Smart #36 of the Boston Celtics drives against Caleb Martin #16 of the Miami Heat during the second quarter in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals at Kaseya Center on May 21, 2023 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)Read moreMegan Briggs / Getty Images

It’s been a rough series for Boston, who are now down 3-0 to Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, I know one Celtic that thrives in these situations, and he headlines my favorite prop bets ahead of the Celtics and Heat Game 4 matchup, where Boston is looking to avoid a sweep.

Odds via BetMGM, current at time of writing and subject to change.

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Celtics vs. Heat Best Prop Bet No. 1

Marcus Smart over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125)

Marcus Smart is the heart of the Celtics. He’s one of the more confounding players in the NBA, but he’s vital to everything the team does on both ends of the floor.

Smart also steps up in the biggest moments, becoming more aggressive when his team’s back is against the wall (for better or for worse).

For example, courtesy of Brandon Anderson from The Action Network, Smart averages 5.9 rebounds and 7.0 assists per game when trailing in a series, compared to 4.1 and 5.5 in all other games, respectively.

Smart will be wildly aggressive in Game 4, especially considering the larger context of Boston’s ECF embarrassment. He’ll be pushing the ball in transition, attacking the paint and launching 3s, and I expect him to excel in all areas.

Smart has cashed over 22.5 PRA in two of three ECF games and nine of 16 during this playoff run (56%), and his upside is higher in this game.

Look for Smart to play 40+ minutes, run all over the court and stuff the stat sheet in Game 4.

» READ MORE: Nuggets heavy favorites to win first NBA championship after sweeping Lakers in conference finals

Celtics vs. Heat Best Prop Bet No. 2

Caleb Martin over 1.5 3-pointers made (-150)

Caleb Martin was one of my favorite college basketball players ever. He and his twin brother Cody obliterated the Mountain West Conference for the Nevada Wolf Pack – Caleb was named MWC POY in 2017-18.

Finally, Martin is getting his shot at the NBA level. He’s the team’s second-leading scorer behind Jimmy Butler in the ECF, draining almost 20 points per game.

I’m so proud.

Of course, we can likely expect some scoring regression from Martin in the future, as he’s shooting 63.2% from the field in the series. But I still think we can bet on him in a different player prop market.

Per ShotQuality, Martin ranked in the 92nd percentile in open catch-and-shoot 3-pointers this season (1.26 points per possession), shooting around 36% from deep and almost 40% from above the break.

Martin is an uber-effective spot-up shooter. Butler and others will keep driving, and Martin should continue to get looks on kick-outs.

Martin has attempted seven 3s in each ECF game so far, and he’s averaging 4.6 3-point attempts per game during his playoff run, making 1.9 per game (41.5%). As a result, Martin has cashed over 1.5 3-pointers made in nine of 16 playoff games (56%), including in six of his past eight.

Martin is getting the 3-point volume and is cashing in. So, even if we see some slight regression, it should be easy for him to sink two 3′s off kick-outs from Butler or whomever.

» READ MORE: Nick Nurse favored to become next Sixers coach at one sportsbook; Sam Cassell second choice

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