Heat vs. 76ers prediction: Bet on Philly to roll over slumping Miami

The last time the Heat and 76ers hooked up, Miami strutted out of Wells Fargo Center with a 99-90 series-clinching victory in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

On Monday night, Philadelphia gets its first crack at redemption when the Heat return to town for the first of back-to-back meetings (with the second slated for Wednesday in South Beach).

The point spread in Monday’s contest suggests the Sixers shouldn’t have much trouble getting their redemption. So do a bunch of other factors, namely this one: These rivals have gone in completely opposite directions since they last battled 9½ months ago.

Odds updated as of 11:45 a.m. on Feb. 27.

Is Miami capable of playing a competitive basketball game Monday night? Without a doubt. Does Miami have the talent to pull off the outright upset? Certainly.

Are we willing to risk our money on either of those outcomes? Not a chance — for a whole lot of reasons.

First off, the Heat arrive in Philadelphia on a four-game losing skid, both SU and ATS. It started before the All-Star break with consecutive losses to the Nuggets (112-108 at home) and stripped-down Nets (116-105).

Then after a nine-day respite, Miami returned to the road Friday and got blasted 128-99 at Milwaukee. You know what makes that result worse? Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who wasn’t supposed to play because of a wrist injury, suited up but departed after just six-plus minutes after injuring his right knee.

The Greek Freak scored just four points in his limited action — yet Miami still lost by 29.

After that beatdown, Miami immediately flew to Charlotte for a Saturday night clash with the Hornets, who have the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference. The Heat got 33 points from Tyler Herro, 28 from star Jimmy Butler, plus 13 points and 13 rebounds from newly acquired Kevin Love — and they lost 108-103 as a 6.5-point road favorite.

» READ MORE: Do the Phillies have any MVP contenders? Will they make the postseason? Here’s what the odds say.

But wait, there’s more: Miami has cashed just once in its last nine games (and it required overtime against lowly Orlando). So the Heat’s season-long point-spread record now stands at 21-37-2 — worst in the NBA.

By comparison, Philadelphia is 35-24 ATS (only Oklahoma City at 36-23-1 ATS is better).

Of course, that’s hardly the only difference between these squads.

Consider these facts:

» READ MORE: The NBA's best team against the spread may surprise you

Which brings us to our final point: Philadelphia is going to take the court Monday ticked off and hell-bent on redemption — not because of what happened against the Heat back in May, but because of what happened Saturday night against the Boston Celtics.

The 76ers squandered a six-point halftime lead — as well as a sensational 41-point, 12-rebound performance from center Joel Embiid — in a gut-wrenching 110-107 loss to the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics.

Gut-wrenching because Boston’s Jayson Tatum hit a go-ahead 3-pointer with 1.3 seconds left. And because Embiid answered with a 75-foot, game-tying swish … that didn’t count because the heave left Embiid’s fingertips just after the buzzer sounded.

So instead of pulling to within two games of the Celtics in the conference standings, Philadelphia finds itself four games back. In fact, the Sixers are now closer to fourth-place Cleveland (6.5 games behind Boston) than second-place Milwaukee (half-game behind Boston).

» READ MORE: Three thoughts on the Sixers after a split with the Grizzlies and Celtics

Adding to Philadelphia’s sense of urgency Monday night: Wednesday’s rematch with the Heat in Miami kicks off a brutal five-game road trip, with stops in Dallas (Thursday) and Milwaukee (Saturday) immediately following the visit to South Beach.

So while the loss to Boston stung, the 76ers have no choice but to get over it and their homestand on a high note.

Our money says Embiid and Co. will do just that with a convincing victory against a wounded, worn-out and road-weary Heat squad.

Lay the points at Caesars Sportsbook with Philadelphia, which has failed to cover in consecutive games just once since mid-January (a span of 16 contests).

Point spread: Heat (+6) @ 76ers (-6)

Moneyline: Heat (-185) @ 76ers (-225)

Total: 217 points

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