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Kings vs. Warriors prediction: A contrarian approach to betting this Game 6 total

With the Warriors hosting the Kings in Game 6 of this first-round series, we offer our prediction on how to bet the total.

Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and the Warriors have a chance to close out the Kings Friday night. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and the Warriors have a chance to close out the Kings Friday night. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)Read moreStacy Revere / Getty Images

The Sacramento Kings are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive with a win on the road in Game 6 vs. the Warriors in San Francisco.

That task certainly won’t be easy, considering that Golden State had the second-best record (33-8) at home during the regular season. As a result, the Warriors are getting plenty of respect, given that the bookmakers opened them as 7.5-point favorites.

While I’m not entirely against laying the points in this spot, I will say that Sacramento (28-15 against the spread) has been the most profitable team on the road this season to the tune of 10.54 units.

Instead, I plan to focus on the total after identifying some unique circumstances in this matchup.

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Kings vs. Warriors odds

Odds provided by BetMGM

Spread: SAC +7.5 (-110) vs. GSW -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline: SAC (+240) vs. GSW (-300)

Total: Over 236.5 (-110) | Under 236.5 (-110)

Kings vs. Warriors pick

  1. Under 236.5 points or better

Kings vs. Warriors analysis

It’s one thing to look for trends and angles blindly, but it’s even more critical if you can craft a narrative behind them.

Coming into this series, we were expecting every game to be a high-scoring affair. However, we’ve already had two games that finished under the total. Moreover, the total went 2-1-1 to the under in the regular season between these two teams.

And since the past two games in this series went over, this feels like an excellent spot to pivot and take a contrarian approach.

Historically, our Action Labs Database shows that the under has been profitable in this series.

If you combine their regular season and playoff meetings, the under is 43-34-1 for 6.69 units.

» READ MORE: Grizzlies vs. Lakers prediction: Back underdog Memphis in Game 6 in LA

But the key thing to note for this matchup is that both teams are back on the court with just two days between games. The last time we had this situational spot was in Game 2, which resulted in the first under of this series.

Given the quick turnaround between games, I’d have to think that fatigue will start to set in at some point, as you might see some jump shots come up a bit short in this contest.

It’s worth noting that the under is on a 4-0 run when Sacramento plays with two days between games.

We also can’t overlook the importance of Sacramento facing elimination, with this being a Game 6. Our database shows that in Game 6, the total is 86-65 to the under for 16.24 units.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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