Sports Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction: Who will take a one-game lead?
With the series tied at one game apiece, we offer our prediction and best bet for Game 3 between the Knicks and Cavaliers.
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The NBA playoffs series between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers is tied at one game after a solid bounce-back performance from the Cavs in Game 2. After losing the first game by four points, Cleveland produced a blowout home win to level the series.
Still, the Knicks stole home court advantage and have a chance to take a series lead Friday at home, where they’ve won three of their past four games.
The Knicks are 2.5-point favorites on Friday with the total set at 212.5 points, juiced -120 to the under. Those interested in Cleveland can take the points or +105 on the moneyline.
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Prediction
Knicks Moneyline (-125)
I won’t fault anyone who wants to lay the points for a reduced price, but this feels like a safer option given how close these sides are in quality.
According to dunksandthrees.com, the Cavaliers owned the second-best net rating for the regular season while the Knicks finished not far behind in sixth. But, when you account for the home-court edge, that sees the Knicks move slightly ahead of the Cavs, who finished 20-21 away from home in the regular season.
That belief is also reflected in the current market perception for Friday.
As of this writing, money is flowing in on the Knicks with recreational bettors also inclined to back the hosts. According to the Action Network PRO Report, the Knicks have seen 79% of all tickets along with 89% of the total handle.
As a function of the latter percentage, that triggers a historically profitable betting system for the NBA playoffs. The system — aptly titled “NBA Playoffs: More Money on Favorites” — looks for teams receiving a higher percentage of handle compared to tickets, a suggestion respected bettors are backing that side.
Historically, that system has a 61% win rate and 19%return on investment in a 335-game sample. Since the start of this year’s first round, play-in games excluded, teams fitting this system are 9-2 ATS.
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Beyond those betting trends, there’s further data supporting a Knicks win in this game.
Unquestionably the best units of each team are the Knicks offense — fourth in adjusted offensive rating for the regular season — and the Cavaliers defense, which was first in adjusted defensive rating for the regular season.
But, those units see respective rises and dips with a venue change. At home, the Knicks average 3.4 more points per game while the Cavs defense allows 4.3 more points per game in road contests.
Plus, the Knicks proved much more consistent against the Cavs at home during their regular season meetings. In two head-to-head contests at Madison Square Garden, New York finished a perfect 2-0 while limiting the Cavs to 92 points per game, compared with 118.5 points per game in Cleveland.
For those reasons, take the Knicks to claim the third game and reestablish a series lead.
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