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Knicks vs. Heat prediction: Three players to fade in Game 6 include Gabe Vincent, Obi Toppin

Find out which player props to fade for Game 6 as the Miami Heat host the New York Knicks.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 30: Obi Toppin #1 of the New York Knicks talks with head coach Tom Thibodeau during a stop in play against the Miami Heat during game one of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at Madison Square Garden on April 30, 2023 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 30: Obi Toppin #1 of the New York Knicks talks with head coach Tom Thibodeau during a stop in play against the Miami Heat during game one of the Eastern Conference Semifinals at Madison Square Garden on April 30, 2023 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)Read moreElsa / Getty Images

It’s Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference semifinals, and we have Knicks vs. Heat predictions as we explore the player props market.

New York kept its season alive with a 112-103 victory on its home court in Game 5. However, Miami still holds a 3-2 lead in the series as it returns home to the Kaseya Center, where it has yet to suffer a loss this postseason.

With so much on the line for both teams, the bookmakers are projecting a lower-scoring game after opening the total at 209 points. The betting market weighed in, pushing the number down to 208.

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I agree with the move to the under, given that these teams should be very familiar with one another heading into the sixth game of this series.

When it comes to player props, I only want to focus on those where the under has some value.

Odds provided by BetMGM. Subject to change.

Knicks vs. Heat prop: Obi Toppin under 5.5 points (-125)

Toppin’s scoring prop has fluctuated between 4.5 and 7.5 points over the past four games, and the under cashed on three occasions.

And although this prop is relatively low, the critical thing to note with Toppin is that he’s not getting enough minutes to warrant a play on the over.

In Game 1, he played 31 minutes because Knicks forward Julius Randle was out with an ankle injury. Toppin finished the game with 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting.

Since Randle’s return, Toppin has averaged 11.25 minutes per game.

Not every player can come into a playoff game off the bench and immediately start lighting it up like Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams. Toppin requires a bit more of a rhythm to his game.

He has failed to exceed five points in four consecutive games.

In Game 6, we saw Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau play Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes for 48 minutes each. With Thibodeau already willing to shorten his bench, Toppin could be the next player to see his minutes dwindle in Game 6.

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Knicks vs. Heat prop: Quentin Grimes under 2.5 three-pointers (-130)

Grimes played 48 minutes in Game 5 and, although he’s still only 23 years old, this is a quick turnaround for any player. He managed three field goals in the contest, finishing with eight points and a plus/minus of plus-9.

Thibodeau prioritizes other parts of the Houston product’s game, as Grimes has averaged 6.4 points in the series.

In Game 4, he was on the floor for 42 minutes, and one can only wonder if he’ll be in line to play heavy minutes again. Nonetheless, he’s had one game during this series where he hit over 2.5 three-pointers.

During the regular season, he averaged 2.2 three-pointers per game. After factoring fatigue into the equation, I like the under with this prop even more.

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Knicks vs. Heat prop: Gabe Vincent under 15.5 points+rebounds+assists (-130)

I’ve been closely watching Vincent’s minutes plummet (from 30 to 22) along with his shooting, as he’s just 5-for-25 in his past three games. That won’t get the job done when you’re trying to close out the series on your home floor.

During that span, Kyle Lowry’s minutes have spiked from 25 in Game 3 to 31 in Game 5.

This is when Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra is more likely to rely on his veterans like Lowry. Miami can’t take any chances with returning to New York for a Game 7, so don’t be surprised if Vincent spends most of the night watching from the bench.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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