Lakers vs. Grizzlies prediction: Bet on Los Angeles to keep it close in Memphis

As recently as Valentine’s Day, the Los Angeles Lakers’ hopes of getting into the NBA play-in tournament — let alone the actual playoffs — seemed bleaker than a winter day in Alaska.

Now, LeBron James and co. are just one victory away from reaching the Western Conference semifinals. And they get three chances to secure that victory.

The first opportunity comes Wednesday night in Memphis, where the Lakers will look to wrap up their first-round series against the Grizzlies in five games.

If NBA playoffs oddsmakers are to be believed, Memphis will live to see Game 6; the Grizzlies are favored to send the series back to Los Angeles.

Our take on Game 5 of Lakers vs. Grizzlies? Memphis may indeed hold serve at home, but we’re not passing up the points — not when a rejuvenated LeBron is facing a wounded animal in a close-out situation.

Odds updated as of 10 a.m. ET on April 26.

One way to look at the Lakers’ Game 4 victory over Memphis: They needed the first 20-point, 20-rebound game of LeBron James’ epic career and needed the Grizzlies to miss 33 of 42 attempts from the 3-point line to escape with a 117-111 victory.

In overtime. At home.

Another way to view it: Led by guard Desmond Bane’s career playoff-high 36 points, five Memphis players scored in double figures. At the same time, James’ partner in crime — All-Star forward Anthony Davis — had as many turnovers as he did baskets (four) and finished with just 12 points.

Yet the Lakers still won. And covered the point spread.

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It was, in fact, a gritty victory for Los Angeles. And at the center of it was an ageless 38-year-old warrior who sent the game to overtime courtesy of a layup with less than a second left in regulation, then scored the game-winner in overtime.

Including an overtime play-in game victory over Minnesota, James is now averaging 25.2 points, 12.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists in five postseason contests. He has topped 20 points in each game and is one rebound shy of a five-game double-double streak.

Not bad for a guy whom Grizzlies swingman/loud mouth Dillon Brooks claims is over the hill.

Obviously, James isn’t the only reason the Lakers are up 3-1 in this series.

L.A.’s defense has been tremendous in five postseason games, giving up an average of just 103.6 points in regulation. And the Lakers have held the Grizzlies to just 41.6% shooting overall.

That defense — coupled with the confidence that Davis won’t deliver two offensive clunkers in a row — is precisely why we like Los Angeles to play a competitive game Wednesday (and be in position to win it).

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Another reason we’re siding with the Lakers: Memphis appears to be falling apart, and not just on the basketball court.

Grizzlies star Ja Morant continues to deal with a hand injury he suffered in Game 1 that forced him to miss Game 2 (the only game Memphis won in this series). Morant shot just 8-for-24 (1-for-6 from 3-point land) in Monday’s loss.

But it’s what happened after Game 4 that’s most disturbing: He no-showed at the post-game press conference. Brooks also blew it off.

That’s the sign of a talented but very immature team that’s incapable of handling the immense pressure that comes with the playoffs.

Will being back home help the Grizzlies? It sure shouldn’t hurt. But it’s not exactly a guaranteed cure-all, especially against a veteran club like L.A.

Throw in the fact that Morant reinjured his hand in Game 4, and it’s difficult to see Memphis running the Lakers off the court in this one.

So snag the points and look for L.A. to at least get inside the number — somehow, some way.

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