NBA MVP odds: 76ers’ Embiid powers his way up the board

If you’ve recently scanned the 2022-23 NBA MVP odds board, you likely came away with this reaction: It’s déjà vu all over again.

With roughly 10 weeks remaining in the regular season, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is heavily favored to become the first player in nearly three decades to win three consecutive MVPs.

The contender now slotted right behind Jokic? The same guy who served as Jokic’s bridesmaid the last two years: Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid.

Both big men have been rocketing up the NBA MVP odds board for the past several weeks. But only now are the two rivals — who just duked it out in Philadelphia on Saturday for the first time this season — positioned 1-2 in the odds market.

In fact, at the moment, Jokic and Embiid have opened up such a sizable lead against the rest of the field that a once wide-open race is shaping up to be a two-man battle yet again.

Here’s an updated look at NBA MVP odds, plus a review of where the betting action is trending at one sportsbook.

Odds and statistics updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Jan. 31.

Embiid hasn’t exactly been modest when asked his opinion about how the voting went down for NBA MVP the last two seasons — he believes he deserved the award both times.

That thought was clearly front of mind Saturday afternoon at the Wells Fargo Center, where Embiid outdueled Jokic both on the stat sheet and the scoreboard.

The two-time defending MVP had a fine game — 8-for-12 shooting for 24 points, along with eight rebounds, nine assists and two blocks. But Embiid thoroughly dominated, making 18 of 31 shots (4-for-7 from 3-point range) for a game-high 47 points.

Embiid also had a game-high 17 rebounds and chipped in five assists, three steals and two blocks. And he did a lot of that damage while matched up against Jokic.

Embiid’s heroics in leading the Sixers to a 126-119 come-from-behind victory over Denver did not go unnoticed in the NBA odds market. By Monday morning, the 7-footer saw his odds dip to +250 at BetMGM — the lowest they have been all season. Those odds have since inched up to +260.

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To put Embiid’s current odds in context, consider this: Back on Nov. 9, two days after Philadelphia posted a 100-88 home win over Phoenix that brought team’s record to 5-6, bettors could’ve gotten Embiid at +2000 (20-to-1) to win NBA MVP at BetMGM.

That was Embiid’s high point, this after opening the season as the +500 MVP co-favorite with Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic to win the league’s top individual honor.

Even as recently as Jan. 11, Embiid’s NBA MVP odds were sitting at +1600. At that time, Embiid was in the sixth position, behind Doncic (+275), Jokic (+300), Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo (+350), Boston’s Jayson Tatum (+400), Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant (+1400).

The previous day, Embiid returned from a three-game absence due to a nagging left foot injury and had a game-high 36 points and 11 rebounds in a 147-116 trouncing of Detroit at home.

It was the second of what would turn out to be seven straight 30-plus point efforts for Embiid. The streak was broken against Brooklyn on Thursday when Embiid mustered “just” 26 points.

Still, in his last 14 games going back to Dec. 23, the big man is averaging 35.5 points and 10.1 rebounds with 10 30-point games, five 40-point games and eight double-doubles.

Thanks to his recent points barrage, Embiid (33.6 points per game) has overtaken Doncic (33.4 ppg) for the NBA scoring lead. He’s also chipping in 10 rebounds and 4.2 assists per contest, and has notched 23 double-doubles in 37 games.

After digesting Embiid’s numbers, it’s logical to ask: Why is he only the second choice in the current NBA MVP odds market?

Answer: Because, somehow, Jokic has been even better.

The 2014 second-round (yes, second-round) draft pick is four assists shy from averaging a triple-double on the season.

Through 43 games, Jokic is putting up 25.1 points, 10.9 rebounds and a career-high 9.9 assists. He has 33 double-doubles and 15 triple-doubles, with nine of the latter coming in his last 20 games.

And looking back over his past 21 contests, Jokic would’ve had five more triple-doubles had he yanked down one more rebound in each game.

As crazy as it sounds, though, Jokic has come from further back of the NBA MVP odds pack than Embiid — and in a shorter amount of time. As recently as Dec. 5, the 6-foot-11 Serbian had peak MVP odds of +3300 at BetMGM.

But on Friday — some 24 hours before his showdown with Embiid — Jokic’s odds had shrunk to a low of -145 at BetMGM.

That number has since jumped to the current price of +110, which is still more than half of Embiid’s +260 odds.

However, at Caesars Sportsbook, Jokic remains the odds-on favorite at -105, with Embiid second at +210.

FanDuel has the same duo ranked 1-2, with Jokic at +115 and Embiid at +190. From there, FanDuel drops to Doncic (+450), followed by Tatum (+1300) and Antetokounmpo (+1600).

The gap is a bit narrower at BetMGM, where Doncic is +550, Tatum is +1000 and Antetokounmpo is +1300. Caesars has the same trio at +350/+1200/+1800.

No other player in the league has NBA MVP odds shorter than +3000 at any of the three sportsbooks.

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As Jokic’s triple-doubles began piling up in mid-December, more than a few bettors at BetMGM began jumping on the two-time winner’s NBA MVP bandwagon. So much so that Jokic supplanted Doncic as the sportsbook’s biggest liability two weeks ago.

BetMGM reported Tuesday morning that it has taken more MVP bets on Doncic (18.3%) than any other player. However, nearly one-quarter of all the MVP dollars are on Jokic (23%) — including a lot at some juicy plus-money prices.

Jokic (14.4%) is second in ticket count at BetMGM, while Doncic is second in money (21.5%).

Embiid is behind both players at BetMGM in bets made and amount of money wagered (both 9.8%). Exactly four weeks ago, Embiid was fifth in both tickets (8.3%) and money (8.2%).

Memphis Grizzlies star Ja Morant, who is fifth on the NBA MVP odds board at +3000, is fourth in tickets (8.9%). He’s followed by oft-injured Pelicans forward and now 150-to-1 MVP long shot Zion Williamson (7.4%).

On the money side, Tatum (8.0%) and Antetokounmpo (7.6%) follow Embiid.

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