Pistons vs. 76ers prediction: Up-tempo game will lead to plenty of points

Eight days ago, the Philadelphia 76ers’ nucleus — Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey — was on the court together for the first time since mid-November.

The reunion lasted all of two games before Embiid hit the sidelines with a nagging left foot injury.

Embiid’s injury isn’t believed to be serious. However, Philadelphia’s 7-foot center and MVP candidate may miss his fourth straight game Tuesday when the 76ers host Detroit in the back end of a two-game home-and-home battle.

The good news for Philly: It got by just fine without Embiid in Motown on Sunday, rolling 123-111 as a 5.5-point road favorite.

Can the Sixers take it to the Pistons once again and cover a number that is more than double what it was Sunday? We’re not so sure.

So we’re turning to the total with our Pistons vs. 76ers prediction. Because even without the NBA’s second-leading scorer, Philadelphia should have no issue torching a defense that would struggle to slow down a high school team.

Odds updated as of 11:30 a.m. on Jan. 10.

130, 142, 101, 132, 104, 135, 119.

Those are the point totals opposing teams have dropped on Detroit just since Dec. 23.

Go back another two weeks, and the Pistons have allowed at least 121 points in 11 of their last 15 games. During this stretch, Detroit is surrendering 123.3 points per outing — and that’s including two competent defensive efforts in wins over the Timberwolves (116-104) and Magic (121-101).

» READ MORE: Bet on Killian Hayes, Jordan Clarkson and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to have big nights Tuesday

The Pistons’ Over/Under mark in these 15 contests: 10-5.

One of those five Unders was a 113-93 loss in Philadelphia back on Dec. 21, a result that fell way short of the 222-point total. But here’s the thing: Embiid played in that game and Maxey did not.

That’s noteworthy because Embiid is the key to a 76ers defense that ranks third in the NBA in points allowed (109.2 per contest). Maxey, meanwhile, is a tempo-pushing point guard who creates offense for whomever is on the court.

We saw these two truths on full display in the last three games that Maxey played and Embiid didn’t. Philadelphia beat the Pacers 129-126 in overtime (it was 122-122 at the end of regulation); lost to the Bulls 126-112; and knocked off Detroit on Sunday.

With and without Embiid and Maxsey, the Sixers are averaging 119.3 points over their past 16 games. And they have been particularly prolific at home, scoring 118-plus points in seven of the last 10 at Wells Fargo Center.

With Philly’s offense operating at such a high level right now, 118 points seems like the absolute floor Tuesday night. So the question is, can Detroit’s offense crank it up against the Sixers’ defense?

They pretty much did 48 hours ago, even with leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic (21 points per game) in street clothes with a calf injury. (Bogdanovic will sit again Tuesday.)

» READ MORE: NBA championship odds: 76ers still a relative long shot to win the title

Sunday’s game was the 11th time in the last 15 contests that the Pistons cracked 110 points — which helps explain the 10-5 Over heater that Detroit is on.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 13-4 to the Over going back to the start of December, with the last four games in a row (and eight of the last nine) hurdling the total.

Lastly, although the first Pistons-76ers meeting at Wells Fargo three weeks ago stayed low, the Over is still 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings between these squads.

We’ll bank on all those streaks continuing Tuesday in what should be an up-tempo, back-and-forth scoring fest right from the opening tip.

Play the Pistons-76ers Over the total at Caesars.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.