T-Wolves vs. Lakers odds, prediction and pick: How to bet Tuesday’s Western Conference play-in clash

The Los Angeles Lakers emerged from the NBA All-Star break in late February facing a reality as clear as a cloudless Southern California day: Start winning — and winning a lot — or miss the playoffs for a second straight year.

Well, the Lakers started winning. A lot.

No, not quite enough to secure a top-six position in the Western Conference and a guaranteed first-round playoff series. But Los Angeles did clinch the next-best thing: the No. 7 seed, which gives LeBron James and Co. two win-and-you’re-in chances in this week’s NBA play-in tournament.

Then came Monday’s bombshell news that the Minnesota Timberwolves — the Lakers’ play-in opponent Tuesday — suspended center Rudy Gobert one game for punching a teammate in Sunday’s season finale.

Gobert’s absence is a massive deal, because the 7-foot-1 Frenchman is one of the NBA’s most dominant rebounders and Minnesota’s third-leading scorer this season.

It’s also massive because Gobert tormented Los Angeles this season. That’s why we’re betting on the Lakers to do something they haven’t done against Minnesota all year: take a big halftime lead into the locker room.

Odds updated as of 4:15 p.m. ET on April 10.

Minnesota took two of three meetings from the Lakers during the regular season. Ater winning by near identical scores at home in late October (111-102) and in L.A. in early March (110-102), the TWolves got dusted 123-111 in Minneapolis to close out March.

However, the latter result is really the only one of significance. Because it’s the only one that featured all the main players who will be involved in Tuesday’s play-in battle — well, all except Gobert.

Unlike in the first two meetings, the third clash included L.A.’s rebuilt trade-deadline roster; it included Lakers studs Anthony Davis (who missed the first loss) and James (who missed the second); and included TWolves superstar Karl Anthony Towns (who missed the second matchup).

Minnesota led that third battle 65-55 at halftime — its biggest halftime advantage of the three meetings. However, the Lakers steamrolled the Timberwolves 68-46 in the second half and ran off with the 12-point win as a 2-point road favorite.

Now is when we bring Gobert back in the picture. The 2021-22 NBA rebound champ had 14 points and 11 of his team’s 39 rebounds in the March 31 loss.

Pretty solid, right? Not when you look at his stats from the first two meetings.

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That’s a three-game average of 19.3 points and 15.3 rebounds. For the season, Gobert averaged 13.4 points and a team-high 11.6 rebounds, posting a double-double in exactly half (35) of his 70 starts.

One of the non double-doubles came in Sunday’s finale, during which Gobert had just two points and three rebounds in 13 minutes against New Orleans.

Why only 13 minutes? Because Gobert was sent home after throwing a punch at teammate Kyle Anderson following a shouting match during a second-quarter timeout.

The TWolves went on to rally for a 113-108 home win over the Pelicans, their third straight victory. But, boy, was it costly. Because Minnesota not only chose to discipline Gobert by banning him for Tuesday’s play-in game, but another TWolves starter — Jaden McDaniels — punched a wall at halftime and broke his hand.

McDaniels is Minnesota’s fourth-leading scorer (12.1 points per game), but his biggest contributions come on the defensive end.

So if you’re keeping score at home, the TWolves will be without two starters who combined to average 25.5 points and 15.5 rebounds per game while also being lockdown defenders for a team that has precious few. (Minnesota gave up 115.8 points per game in the regular season, 18th-most in the league.)

Now you know why oddsmakers put up a huge point spread for a game involving two teams with near identical records both on the court (L.A. is 43-39; Minnesota is 42-40) and at the betting window (L.A. is 39-40-3 ATS; Minnesota is 40-42 ATS).

However, we’re recommending a first-half wager for a couple of reasons. First, while the Lakers closed the regular season on a 9-2 run, they went just 6-5 ATS.

More importantly, James and Davis have major durability issues (to put it kindly). So there’s no way if the Lakers are up big that either will be on the court much (if at all) in the fourth quarter.

That could potentially leave the backdoor open for Minnesota. So let’s slam that backdoor shut by betting on Los Angeles to pounce on a wounded animal right from the jump and stroll into the locker room with a comfortable halftime lead — one that easily could approach double digits.

First Half:

Full Game:

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.