Jalen Hurts is favored to lead the NFL in rushing scores at one sportsbook. Is it worth betting on?

As we get closer and closer to NFL Week 1, sportsbooks are dropping more markets.

A market that popped up on FanDuel this week caught my eye: Most regular season rushing touchdowns.

Surprisingly, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is the betting favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns in this book.

Let’s break that down.

Here are the current betting favorites to lead the NFL in rushing TDs at FanDuel:

It’s wild to see Hurts atop the odds boards for rushing touchdowns, but this list seems right.

Last season, Detroit’s Jamaal Williams led the league in rushing TDs with a whopping 17. However, we can’t expect Williams to replicate that production, especially considering he’s no longer with the Lions.

Three players were tied for second with 13 rushing TDs – Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, and Hurts. Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs had 12. Barkley had 10.

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Let’s compare these numbers across the market.

Here’s the same market at DraftKings Sportsbook:

» READ MORE: Will Jalen Hurts match his production from last season? Here’s a guide to betting his props

And here’s the same market at Caesars Sportsbook:

Regarding Hurts, FanDuel is the outlier across the betting market.

The book is also an outlier when valuing Henry, the consensus betting favorite across the rest of the market.

Before we discuss this market further, let’s get a disclaimer out of the way: If you want to bet Hurts to lead the league in rushing TDs, do not bet it at FanDuel. The rest of the market offers better odds for this prop, and you should always shop around for the best number.

On to the analysis...

As mentioned, Hurts rushed for 13 scores last season, a huge amount. A big reason is that Hurts’ dual-action ability made the Eagles nearly unstoppable in the red zone.

The Eagles scored a touchdown at the fifth-highest rate in goal-to-go situations (83%). By Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the Eagles were the sixth-best rush offense in the red zone.

Could the Eagles regress in that area? Perhaps. The league has film on these sets now.

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But the Eagles also had a dominant offensive line that opened up huge holes for Hurst and the backfield pieces, and four of Hurts’ five offensive linemen return for this season.

And while the Eagles lost running back Miles Sanders, their new trio of D’Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell might be more versatile.

Ultimately, I’m not sure if Hurts has value in this market.

The Action Network’s Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon build season-long stat projections for every player, and they have Hurts racking up nine rushing TDs this year.

Two players are projected for double-digit rushing TDs this season, as Henry and Chubb are both projected for 10.

Plenty of running backs are in the eight and nine TDs range, and one jumped at me.

The Lions have a new running back room featuring Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. It’s reasonable to expect Montgomery to step into the role previously filled by Williams — the bruiser used in goal-to-go situations.

Detroit returns a ton of production on the offensive side of the football, most notably whiz-kid offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. This offense will move the ball and put up points, so we should expect plenty of scoring opportunities for Montgomery.

The Action Network team projects Montgomery for eight rushing TDs in 2023, and I don’t think his value or upside is being reflected in the current market price.

You can get Montgomery to lead the league in rushing TDs for a solid plus-money price at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.