Packers vs. Bears prediction: Can Green Bay extend six-game winning streak over division rival?
Aaron Rodgers has led the Packers to six straight wins over Chicago and is favored to win big once again on Sunday night.
The last time Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers lost to the rival Bears, Justin Fields was still backing up starting quarterback Jake Fromm at Georgia and was years away from taking over as Chicago’s face of the franchise.
Those two will meet for the third time Sunday, and oddsmakers don’t have a ton of confidence in the underdog Bears even after last week’s upset win over the 49ers. Will we see a similar result? Or will Green Bay win its seventh straight in this series?
Here’s how we’re betting Sunday night’s contest, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Packers vs. Bears Pick
Packers -10 (-110 BetMGM)
Packers vs. Bears Prediction: The Analysis
To understand what we might see Sunday, it helps to know how things usually play out when Rodgers faces the team he said he “owns” in a spirited celebration last season. Spoiler alert: it’s not pretty for the visitors.
The two-time reigning MVP owns a career 22-5 record (81.5%) against Chicago, by far his best against any opponent with at least 10 games played. He’s 20-7 against the spread in those 27 contests, with an average scoring margin of 9.9 points and 12 double-digit victories. This series has been particularly lopsided over the last two seasons, with Green Bay winning four straight (4-0 ATS) by an average of 15 points.
Can we expect a similar performance Sunday night? The Packers’ offense looked out of sync in Rodgers’ first game without star receiver Davante Adams, forcing this Green Bay’s stable of unproven receivers into the limelight. Had rookie Christian Watson not dropped a surefire 75-yard touchdown in his first NFL snap, perhaps last week’s game goes differently. Instead, Green Bay’s elite secondary was torched time and time again by Justin Jefferson and co. in an easy Vikings win.
We’ve seen this story play out before. A year ago, the Packers were embarrassed in their season opener before bludgeoning the division rival Lions by 18 points in prime time to spark a seven-game winning streak. This group has some underlying issues that weren’t present a year ago, but Green Bay should be able to lock down this uninspiring Bears offense in a similar spot and fluster Fields, who had more turnovers (4) than touchdowns (3) in last year’s two meetings.
The former Ohio State star deserves credit for rallying his side to a comeback win in Week 1, but there’s no escaping just how ugly the final box score was. Fields completed just eight of his 17 passes (47.1%) for 121 yards and two touchdowns, one of which came on a throw so wide open that you or I could have hit it. Yes, he scrambled to make that a reality, but you can’t count on that being available in non-monsoon conditions.
Ultimately, that’s the trickiest part of judging this Bears team through one week. Last week’s win was a positive indicator for their defense, but the adverse weather conditions complicate how much stock we should place into that data point. The larger picture here is one of dominance by the three-time defending NFC North champions, who have used Chicago as a punching bag for the entirety of Rodgers’ tenure.
The end result is a matchup that, on paper, still feels like a blowout. With another week of practice to establish chemistry between Rodgers and his new receiving corps, I’d expect a crisp showing from one of the league’s best teams and a return to mediocrity for the Bears, who are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as double-digit underdogs.
Packers vs. Bears Odds (via BetMGM)
Packers -10 (-110), moneyline -500
Bears +10 (-110), moneyline +375
O/U 41.5 (-110)
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