NFC East: Eagles or Cowboys? How to bet on which team wins the division

The NFC East is a two-horse race between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.

The Eagles are priced as slight favorites to win the division, while the Cowboys are priced closer to 2-to-1 underdogs.

You can get juicy odds on the Giants (+750) or Commanders (+1300) to win the NFC East, but it’s not happening. The Giants are due for negative regression, and the Commanders are in the middle of another lengthy rebuild (at least they finally have a new owner).

The NFC East is such a tough futures market to crack.

I’ve compiled a list of “pros and cons” for each team, so let’s roll through those before making a final NFC East division prediction and pick.

The Eagles feature the most complete, well-rounded roster in the NFL. They return nine starters on offense and seven on defense from a team that went 14-3 and cruised to a Super Bowl appearance.

Two of those losses came in starts quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew.

The Eagles will be dominant in the trenches.

This is the best offensive line in the NFL, returning four of five starters to a group that led the league in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) pass-blocking grades and was third in run-blocking grades. Even with the loss of guard Isaac Seumalo, the Eagles have plenty of line depth.

Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham return to a defensive line that led the league in sacks (70, 15 more than any other team).

The Eagles also had a productive draft, taking two impact defenders from Georgia in the first round (Jalen Carter at No. 9 and Nolan Smith at No. 30).

Jalen Hurts is incredible. He’s a top-five quarterback in the NFL, and his dual-action ability allows the Eagles unlimited offensive flexibility and firepower.

Nick Sirianni is one of the best coaches in the NFL. Per Sumer Sports, he finished first in win probability over expected.

Almost nothing else matters if the quarterback and coach are there.

The Eagles are a threat in the NFC and will be for years.

» READ MORE: Will Jalen Hurts match his production from last season? Here’s a guide to betting his props

Per Football Outsiders, the Eagles faced the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL last year. Per Sean Koerner of The Action Network, the Eagles will face the hardest schedule in the NFL this season.

The Eagles lost both coordinators. And while they lost only four starters on the defensive side, it was four highly impactful pieces, including:

The Eagles are due for major negative regression, given they went 7-1 in one-score games last season. Their Pythagorean record, based purely on point differential, was 11.6-5.4.

Overall, we’re at the peak of the market on the Eagles. They’ll never be more highly rated in the betting markets than they are right now, which means we should probably bet against them.

» READ MORE: Will the Eagles top 11 wins? Here are three NFL win total bets to make ahead of the season

Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to see opponents play the Eagles smarter. Hurts only broke out last year, so now the league has more film on him (and a whole offseason to break that down).

One thing to watch is Hurts against zone defense. Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, Hurts posted the seventh-most Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against man defense last season (+0.18) but the 27th-most against zone defense (-0.02).

Also, you can never discount a pure Super Bowl Hangover. Only one team in the last 30 years has returned to the Big Game the year after losing (the 2018 Patriots).

The Cowboys made the right moves this offseason.

They moved off Ezekiel Elliott and toward Tony Pollard, the far more efficient running back.

The addition of Brandin Cooks is very underrated. Cooks dominates wherever he goes — he’s posted 1,000-yard seasons with four different teams.

Adding Stephon Gilmore makes the secondary one of the most complete in the NFL. And moving Micah Parsons from linebacker to edge means he can focus solely on hunting quarterbacks.

There’s also just continuity on defense. Dan Quinn is back for his third straight season, and he’s proven he can always get the most out of his guys. Leighton Vander Esch returns as the quarterback of the unit after a rock-solid, healthy year.

The Cowboys were second in Defense DVOA and EPA per play allowed last season, and I don’t see them getting worse.

» READ MORE: Eagles have favorable odds to win division, NFC and return back to Super Bowl

Kellen Moore departed in the offseason. Mike McCarthy will take over play-calling duties for the Cowboys. McCarthy has only talked about how he wants to run the ball more.

Why?

It is proven year after year that the NFL is a pass-first league. It’s the more efficient play.

These concerns are exacerbated when you look at the offensive line. The Cowboys have two for-sure starters on the offensive line, Zack Martin and Tyler Biasdasz. It’s essentially a position battle at the other three spots.

I think Dak Prescott is a good quarterback, above league average at the minimum. However, he threw 15 interceptions last year on 20 Turnover Worthy Plays in only 12 games.

I don’t expect him to repeat that performance, but it does call into question his decision-making in the pocket. The majority of those interceptions and TWPs came in a clean pocket.

Also, can Dak stay healthy? He hasn’t played a full season since 2019.

» READ MORE: How to bet Dak Prescott’s interception total this NFL season

The Eagles are so wildly overvalued. As mentioned, they’re at the absolute peak of their market.

If I have to recommend a wager in this market, it will be against them.

Dallas has a high floor with its elite defense, and you can catch them at +190 to win the division at DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a good price for a two-horse race.

Ultimately, there are too many question marks for both squads. I can’t recommend a strong play on either squad.

But, if you feel compelled, there’s no choice but to fade the Eagles and take the plus-money odds with the Cowboys.

The play: LEAN Cowboys to win NFC East (+190)

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.