AFC championship game props, predictions: Four best bets for Bengals vs. Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes has insisted all week that he’s playing in Sunday’s AFC championship game rematch against the Cincinnati Bengals despite a sprained ankle.

Oddsmakers clearly believe the Kansas City Chiefs’ star quarterback, as they’ve posted the usual Mahomes props — with one exception: no rushing-related props.

The consensus opinion in the betting market is that Mahomes, whose mobility is as important as any of his otherworldly attributes, will plant his feet in the pocket and stay there all day.

The question is: Can the soon-to-be-named NFL MVP do his usual damage through the air without using his feet?

We have our doubts. That presumption helped inform two of our four AFC Championship Game props — one involving Mahomes, the other the guy who likely will be standing beside him most of the day.

Odds updated as of 3:15 p.m. ET on Jan. 27.

Mahomes practiced all week, received the best around-the-clock treatment money can buy and looked good in those video clips the Chiefs released of him jogging lightly.

All that is great. Doesn’t mean Mahomes’ ankle is going to be 100% Sunday. Because it’s not — not by a long shot.

Any world-class athlete (and Mahomes is certainly one) will tell you the sprain he suffered last Saturday against Jacksonville involves a multi-week recovery process. They’ll also tell you such an injury gets worse in the days after it happens before it gets better.

So unless Mahomes truly is from another planet, he’s going to be limited Sunday. And those limitations will prevent him from putting up gaudy passing numbers.

His coach is going to prevent it, too.

Kansas City’s Andy Reid knows his team’s Super Bowl hopes rest with Mahomes. As such, he’s not going to ask his hobbled quarterback to put the ball in the air 40-plus times.

Instead, Reid is going to lean on an improved running game and a lot of short, quick, safe passes — the kind a guy with a sprained ankle can execute without doing further damage to his bum wheel.

There’s also this: Fully healthy last year, Mahomes passed for just 259 yards (on 35 attempts) against the Bengals in a 27-24 AFC title game loss. Then back in Week 13 of this season, Mahomes finished with only 223 passing yards (on 27 attempts) in another 27-24 defeat.

More recently, Mahomes fell short of this FanDuel yardage prop in three of his last four games (224, 328, 202, 195).

Also, don’t forget that just last week, the Bengals’ defense held Buffalo’s Josh Allen to 265 passing yards. Allen was completely healthy and needed 42 pass attempts to get to that number — mostly against soft coverage, as Cincinnati led the entire game.

» READ MORE: Game preview: Bet on Burrow, Cincy to head back to the Super Bowl

Those short, quick, safe passes that we expect Mahomes to throw? Several are going to end up in the hands of McKinnon.

The veteran primarily has served as Kansas City’s third-down running back this season, with explosive tailback Isiah Pacheco handling the bulk of the rushing load.

Those roles are going to change Sunday, because McKinnon is one of the best blocking backs in the league (and pass protection is one of Pacheco’s weaknesses).

Reid understands that keeping his gimpy QB upright is priority No. 1. So he’s going to involve McKinnon a lot more in this contest. Not just as a blocking back, but also as an important safety valve/checkdown option for Mahomes.

McKinnon didn’t have any receptions (or targets) last week against the Jaguars. But he had at least three catches in four of his previous five games.

Again, though, he wasn’t on the field very much, deferring instead to Pacheco. Kansas City’s game plan will be much different this week, as Mahomes’ health and availability takes precedence over everything else.

That will require a heavy dose of McKinnon, in all facets. Play this FanDuel prop and look for McKinnon to finish with at least four receptions.

» READ MORE: NFC championship prediction, preview: Take the under when Eagles, 49ers meet in Philly

With 4:05 remaining in the third quarter of a Week 16 game at New England, Burrow threw a short pass to wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase that was picked off by the Patriots’ Marcus Jones.

Burrow has since put the ball in the air 120 times. It has either landed in one of his teammates’ hands or fallen safely to the ground all 120 times.

And in the last three games — two against Baltimore, one against Buffalo — Burrow faced defenses that combined for 31 interceptions this season.

The Chiefs? They have 11 interceptions in 18 games.

Granted, Kansas City has picked off exactly one pass in each of its last four games and has logged a total of six interceptions in the last six contests.

But you know who the Chiefs didn’t thieve this year? Burrow, who played mistake-free in a 27-24 Week 13 home win over K.C.

In three career games against the Chiefs, Burrow has been picked just once in 118 pass attempts (it was in last year’s AFC title game). That’s one of just two interceptions that Burrow has tossed in six career postseason games (210 pass attempts).

Barring a tipped pass that ends up in the wrong hands — something you can’t possibly handicap — we like our odds of Joe Cool playing a squeaky-clean game Sunday.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

We’re forced to pay a little bit of a “tax” on this Bengals vs. Chiefs prop. And it’s because of what Mixon did last week in Buffalo.

The veteran running back from Oklahoma ran all over the Bills’ defense in the snow, finishing with 105 yards on 20 carries.

It was Mixon’s second-best rushing output of the season, ranking only behind his 153-yard, four-touchdown game against Carolina in Week 8.

In all, Mixon has finished with more than 60 rushing yards just seven times in 16 games — and he’s done so in consecutive games just twice (back in Weeks 4 and 5).

Still, we’re looking for Mixon to deliver another strong performance Sunday for two reasons: He’s come up big in big games, and the Chiefs’ run defense is putrid.

To the first point, Mixon has toted the rock 98 times in six playoff contests the past two seasons. He’s turned those carries into 406 yards. That includes 88 yards in last year’s AFC Championship Game in Kansas City, 72 yards in last year’s Super Bowl against the Rams and last week’s 105-yard effort in Buffalo.

As for that putrid Chiefs rushing defense, it has surrendered 94 or more rushing yards in nine straight games and 13 of the last 14.

Last week, Jacksonville ripped off 144 ground yards against Kansas City — which is actually 8 yards less than the Bengals totaled against the Chiefs in Week 13.

Mixon didn’t contribute anything to that 152-yard rushing day against K.C., as he missed the game with an injury.

Instead, backup Samaje Perine (another Oklahoma product) rumbled for a season-high 106 yards on 21 carries. It’s the only time since his rookie season in 2017 that Perrine reached 100 yards rushing.

If Perrine can light up the Chiefs for 106, Mixon should be good for at least 60.

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