Back Ravens covering as home favorites vs Bengals Thursday night

Thursday Night Football marks the 57th meeting all-time between the Bengals and Ravens. Baltimore has the series lead 29-27, and I think they’ll extend that lead at home as 3.5 point favorites by the best NFL betting sites.

You can find odds of -110 for Baltimore covering at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook, where the respective BetMGM bonus code and Caesars Sportsbook promo code can be used during sign-up if you’re a new bettor.

On paper and in theory, these are the two teams likeliest to be competing in the AFC North by season’s end. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson are the best quarterbacks in the division by far, which should make for a thrilling contest.

(Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video)

Cincinnati are 5-4 on the season and on the outside looking in of the playoff picture. Joe Burrow’s poor play due a nagging injury caused the Bengals to fall into a 1-3 rabbit hole to start. But after Burrow got healthy and Cincinnati rattles off four wins in a row (12-2 TD-INT ratio during those games), the NFL was put on notice.

However, confidence is down following a loss to the Texans last week where Burrow was outplayed by C.J. Stroud. Burrow can light up the box score every week, and I expect him to throw at least two touchdowns. He’s thrown two or more scores in five straight games.

Burrow will be without Tee Higgins, who’s been a bust in his contract season as a whole. But Ja’Marr Chase will still play, and I see a big game in store for him.

I think the ground game will be leaned on more than it has in recent weeks as well, as Joe Mixon has ran better than his numbers show this year.

Cincinnati’s defense will be without Sam Hubbard, one of their best pass rushers. Trey Hendrickson is also banged up, and the defense as a whole has been incredibly inconsistent this season.

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The timing of this matchup is interesting for Baltimore as they’ve had a fascinating season. They lost last week to Cleveland after blowing a first half lead. Their other losses were to the Colts and Steelers in games they frankly had no business finding ways to lose.

But their wins have been arguably more impressive than any other team’s wins in the NFL. They manhandled Detroit and Seattle by a combined 75-9 point differential. They beat Cleveland earlier this year 28-3, beat the Bengals on the road by a field goal, and handled Stroud’s Texans with ease in Week 1.

As for their individual players, Lamar Jackson is one of my frontrunners for MVP. He’s still a threat with his legs and has been a much improved passer from past seasons.

A large portion of credit goes to his skill-position players like Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. The run game has also been effective, whether that’s Jackson (481 yards and five rushing touchdowns), Gus Edwards, or the recent revelation, Keaton Mitchell.

There’s a ton to like about Baltimore defensively even without Marlon Humphrey playing. Roquan Smith is having a DPOY caliber season and the team ranks first in the NFL in opponent points per game.

Baltimore being at home is a considerable reason I’m confident in them. Baltimore are 29-11 at home in Jackson’s career. And although they’re without Ronnie Stanley and Humphrey, they’re healthier as a whole than Cincinnati.

I’m also in a holding pattern with the Bengals. I’m as big a Burrow fan as anyone, but him being outplayed last week was eye-opening. While he appears healthy again, the offense is a tick below where we’ve seen them the last two years overall.

Baltimore may not come out ahead by a touchdown or two, but I think their style of play leads to a game where they can cover the 3.5 point spread while keeping Cincinnati within striking distance throughout the contest.

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