Bills vs. Bengals prediction: Bet on Cincinnati to keep good times rolling

The NFL’s prime-time schedule has featured more misses than hits this season — and that’s putting it kindly. Thankfully for fans (and bettors), the league saved its best for last: Bills vs. Bengals.

The year’s final Monday Night Football game not only involves two first-place teams that are running hot — and two stellar young quarterbacks — but it’s a possible AFC Championship Game preview.

Even home-field advantage ramifications are potentially on the line.

Oddsmakers have added to the intrigue by essentially taking the point spread out of the equation: They have Buffalo as the slightest of road favorites.

So making a Bills vs. Bengals prediction was tricky. Ultimately, though, we found value with the team that’s a little bit hotter (and playing in a stadium where it hasn’t lost since Week 1).

Odds updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 30.

With all due respect to the Bills — who are 12-3 (7-7-1 ATS) and remain the favorite to win the Super Bowl — we don’t have any interest in fading this Bengals squad right now.

Especially not at home and not as an underdog (however slim).

Why? Because if not for one Halloween night debacle at Cleveland, Cincinnati would be in the midst of a nine-game winning streak.

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As it is, the Bengals (11-4, 12-3 ATS) have won seven in a row — four on the road, three at home — and they covered the point spread each time.

In fact, since opening the season with a pair of upset losses to the Steelers and Cowboys, Cincinnati is 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS. Take things back to Week 15 of last season, and the Bengals have won 17 of their last 23 games on the field and 20 of their last 23 at the betting window (playoffs included).

Barring a lot of late money pouring in on the Bills, the point spread won’t be a factor Monday night. Still, those are some crazy impressive numbers.

So, too, are these: During its 17-6 SU run, Cincinnati has lost twice in Cleveland (32-13 on Halloween and 21-16 in last year’s meaningless season finale).

The other three losses? By a combined 11 points. The Bengals suffered a trio of field-goal defeats to the Rams (Super Bowl), Steelers (Week 1 in overtime) and Cowboys (Week 2), plus a two-point setback at Baltimore in Week 5.

Speaking of impressive numbers, check out these from third-year Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow: 69% completion rate (third-best in the NFL), 4,260 passing yards (second), 34 touchdowns (second) and a 102.3 quarterback rating (sixth).

The one knock on Burrow: He sometimes plays fast and loose with the football. His 12 interceptions are among the league leaders, and he’s tossed four picks (offset by nine TDs) in the last three weeks.

Obviously, the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner will need to be extra careful Monday night. Not just because rain is in the forecast, but because he’ll be facing one of the NFL’s best and most opportunistic defenses.

Buffalo gives up just 17.5 points per game — only San Francisco (15.3) is better — and ranks fourth in the league with 24 takeaways. That includes 13 interceptions.

Needless to say, quarterback Josh Allen and the loaded Bills offense don’t need a manual to figure out how to convert those miscues into points.

As it is, Allen and Co. are humming again. They have put up back-to-back 30-point performances against the Dolphins (32-29 home win) and Bears (35-13 road win). That gives Buffalo seven games with 30-plus points this season.

And like Cincinnati, the Bills are just a few plays away from an even better record. In fact, the only thing standing between Buffalo and a perfect season are three losses to the Dolphins (21-19), Jets (20-17) and Vikings (33-30 in overtime) by a total of eight points.

However, when you scratch below the surface of the Bills’ schedule, you’ll discover this: a lot of close calls on the road.

In addition to the narrow losses in Miami and at the Jets, Buffalo needed a second-half rally to win at Baltimore (23-20); a late-game interception by the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes to win at Kansas City (24-20); and a field goal at the gun to escape the Lions in Detroit (28-25).

That’s five road games decided by five points or less, with the Bills going 3-2.

The team’s only comfortable road wins: 31-10 at the Rams in Week 1, 24-10 at New England a month ago and last week’s rout at Chicago.

Newsflash: The Bengals are much better than the Rams, Patriots and Bears.

They’re also pretty darn good at home, winning five in a row since the season-opening slip-up against Pittsburgh. That includes a 27-24 victory over the 12-3 Chiefs.

We expect a very similar score Monday night in what should be a highly entertaining conclusion to the NFL’s regular season prime-time slate. And we expect the league’s hottest team to come out on top one more time.

Grab the points with Cincy at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.