Browns vs. Steelers prediction: Pittsburgh will continue its winning ways

Not even the most diehard Pittsburgh Steelers fans would have believed when they woke up on Thanksgiving Day that their team would still be alive for the playoffs heading into the season finale.

Yet that’s the exact scenario the Steelers will face Sunday when they line up against the hated Cleveland Browns.

After taking full advantage of an insanely soft late-season schedule — and catching a big injury break — Pittsburgh has gone from 3-7 and a postseason afterthought to 8-8 and still in the playoff conversation.

Unfortunately for the Steelers, they aren’t in a win-and-you’re-in position. They need to beat Cleveland (or at least forge a tie), then get some help to clinch a third straight playoff berth.

We’re not convinced that help will arrive. However, we are confident Pittsburgh will handle its own business and avoid the franchise’s first losing season in two decades.

Odds updated as of 7:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 5.

Somehow — quite inexplicably, actually — the Steelers are a mere field goal away from a six-game winning streak.

After back-to-back road wins at Indianapolis (24-17) and Atlanta (19-16), Pittsburgh returned home and stumbled against the Ravens in Week 14. Even though Baltimore starting quarterback Lamar Jackson sat out injured, the Steelers fell 16-14 as a 1.5-point home favorite.

The upset loss easily could have sent coach Mike Tomlin’s squad into a season-closing downward spiral. Instead, Pittsburgh bounced back and pounded the Panthers 24-16 on the road.

That was followed by two furious comeback wins over the Raiders (13-10 at home) and Ravens (16-13 in Baltimore, who again didn’t have Jackson under center).

In both instances, the Steelers scored 10 fourth-quarter points to erase seven-point deficits. And in both instances, Pittsburgh’s winning points came via a touchdown with less than a minute to play.

Talk about surviving to see another day.

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The continued resilience the Steelers have displayed during their 5-1 SU/ATS hot streak is a big reason why we’re leaning their way Sunday.

That’s not to say the Browns have packed it in — they haven’t. Cleveland is 4-2 SU and ATS in its last six games.

One loss was on the road against the searing-hot Bengals. The other was a 17-10 home setback to a Saints team that went to Philadelphia last week and manhandled the 13-2 Eagles.

So even though they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs, we expect the Browns to throw haymakers at their AFC North rivals for 60 minutes. (You know they would love nothing more than to end the Steelers’ season.)

Having made Pittsburgh just a slight home favorite, oddsmakers clearly agree that Cleveland will come to play. But will Deshaun Watson and the Browns’ offense score enough points to successfully play spoiler?

We’re skeptical. Because nobody has been able to put up points against the Steelers’ defense lately.

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During its 5-1 stretch, Pittsburgh has surrendered 17, 16, 16, 10 and 13 points. In fact, only two teams since mid-October have scored more than 18 points against the Steelers: Philadelphia (35) and Cincinnati (37).

Even with the losses to the Eagles and Bengals — who have two of the NFL’s most consistently explosive offenses — Pittsburgh has yielded an average of 18.6 points over its past 11 games. Remove the Eagles and Bengals games, and that average plummets to 14.7 points.

While the defense has shouldered much of the load, the improved play of quarterback Kenny Pickett shouldn’t be overlooked or discounted.

The Steelers’ rookie hasn’t been spectacular during his team’s late-season surge. But he has been steady and — most importantly — mistake-free.

Going back to Week 10 against New Orleans, Pickett has four touchdown passes but only one interception in six games (he missed almost all of the first Baltimore game and sat out the Carolina win with a concussion).

We’re talking one pick in 120 pass attempts after throwing eight in his first 165 attempts. He’s also taken just eight sacks in his last six games after hitting the deck 18 times in his first five starts.

So we trust that Pickett has figured some things out and that the pressure won’t be too big for him Sunday.

What about the first meeting between these teams — the one that ended in a 29-17 Browns victory? Totally inconsequential.

First, it was way back in Week 3 (and the final score was misleading because the Browns returned a fumbled lateral for a touchdown as time expired). Also, the two quarterbacks who went the whole way in Cleveland — the Steelers’ Mitchell Trubisky and the Browns’ Jacoby Brissett — will be holding clipboards Sunday.

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And unlike back in September, Pittsburgh will have sack master/reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt on the field this time. As you might guess, Watt’s presence has had a dramatic impact on the Steelers’ defensive turnaround.

Finally, here’s something for the history buffs: These bitter rivals have split their regular-season series each of the last three years.

Prior to that, Pittsburgh absolutely owned the Browns for three solid decades. No joke: The last time Cleveland swept a season series from the Steelers was in 1988.

We don’t see that 34-year streak ending this weekend. But because the Steelers have made a habit of playing close games lately, let’s take the points out of the equation. Play Pittsburgh on the moneyline at FanDuel.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.