Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction: Expect to see a bunch of points Sunday night

The NFL’s six-game “super” wild card weekend delivered four competitive, one-score contests and two lopsided blowouts.

The teams responsible for the two beatdowns? The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers, who will cap this weekend’s NFL Divisional Playoffs on Sunday night in the Bay Area.

San Francisco opened the wild card round with a 41-23 rout of the Seattle Seahawks, and Dallas closed it with a 31-14 pummeling of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The four games sandwiched in between? They were decided by a total of 18 points.

So of course after those one-sided affairs, Cowboys vs. 49ers features the most competitive point spread of the four divisional games.

It’s a point spread that opened with San Francisco as a 4.5-point favorite. That number quickly dipped to 3.5 before bouncing back to the current consensus line: 49ers -4.

The NFL Divisional Playoffs wagering community has spent all week grappling with which side of that number offers the best value. However, we quickly passed on both Dallas and San Francisco, opting to focus our Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction on the total.

Odds updated as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Jan. 20.

We were just a little bit off (tongue firmly in cheek) with last week’s prediction that the Seahawks would cover as a 9.5-point underdog in San Francisco.

But it could’ve been worse: We almost recommended also wagering on Under 42 points — a number that was cleared less than a minute into the fourth quarter.

We did, however, nail our Cowboys-Bucs prediction of Under 45.5, but only because Dallas kicker Brett Maher biffed on four extra-points.

» READ MORE: NFL playoffs odds: Bettors backing Giants, Bengals in Divisional Round

Had Maher been able to split the uprights on just one of those four misses, the game would’ve gone Over — joining the other five wild card contests, all of which hurdled the closing total.

The fact that the Over nearly went 6-for-6 last weekend had nothing to do with our Cowboys vs. 49ers prediction.

Rather, the rationale for this wagering recommendation is all about two explosive offenses, one suspect defense and another defense that was the NFL’s best this season but hasn’t played like it lately.

Let’s start with Dallas. A week after a complete no-show in a 26-6 upset loss at Washington, quarterback Dak Prescott was phenomenal Monday night in Tampa Bay. Prescott went 25-for-33 for 305 yards, four touchdowns and — surprise! — no interceptions. That ended his streak of seven straight games with a pick. He picked apart a Bucs secondary that ranked ninth in the NFL in passing yards allowed this season (203.6 per game) — a secondary that had allowed only one team to net more than 248 passing yards all season.

Now the much-maligned Cowboys quarterback will face a San Francisco defense that gave up the fewest total yards in the regular season (300.6), fewest points (16.3) and second-fewest rushing yards (77.7).

Against the pass, however? The Niners ranked 20th (222.9 per game).

In recent weeks, the following QBs had big games against San Francisco: Seattle’s Geno Smith (253 yards), Las Vegas’ Jared Stidham (365), Washington’s Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz (combined 289), Tampa’s Tom Brady (253) and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (295).

Granted, a lot of those yards were accumulated with the 49ers way ahead on the scoreboard. But Prescott is a better quarterback than all of those guys (yes, including Brady at this point in his career). Besides, that just brings us to our next point: San Francisco’s offense is operating like a runaway freight train right now.

Since a 13-0 home win over the Saints, here are the point totals the 49ers have logged: 33, 35, 21, 37, 37, 38 and 41.

That 21-point outlier? That was rookie quarterback Brock Purdy’s first road start, and it came in Seattle (a notoriously difficult venue for visitors).

» READ MORE: Super Bowl odds: Eagles down to fourth choice to win it all

Purdy was at the controls of the offense for each of those seven contests. That includes five home games in which San Francisco averaged 36.8 points, with the low mark being 33 against Miami.

No reason to think Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and the loaded Niners offense won’t continue to put up points Sunday night. Because Dallas’ defense has been generous in recent weeks.

Prior to holding a 45-year-old dinosaur to 14 points Monday night, the Cowboys had surrendered 26 or more in three of four games. The starting quarterbacks in those three contests: Washington rookie Sam Howell (26 points), Philadelphia backup Gardner Minshew (34 points) and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence (40 points, though the final six came on a defensive TD).

Yet despite those (and other) shaky defensive efforts, Dallas is 8-3 in its last 11 games. The reason? Prescott and the offense, which has averaged 34.6 points during this run.

That number does not include one defensive score. But it does include the 6-point stinker at Washington. Take that one out, and 34.6 jumps to 37.5.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

Also, during an eight-game stretch from Week 8 to Week 16, the Cowboys scored at least 27 points in every contest.

How have these teams done lately with respect to the posted total for Sunday’s game? Dallas has cleared it in seven of its last 11 games (and if not for Maher last week, it would be eight of 11).

San Francisco has done so in four straight (totals of 64, 51, 71 and 57) and five of the last seven.

Take all that and throw in what is expected to be pristine weather conditions, and we should see these two offenses combine for 50 points with relative ease.

Play it Over the total at BetMGM.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.