Bank on Dak Prescott having a huge passing day against Giants in 2023 SNF opener

Entering the 2023 NFL regular season, Dak Prescott is the subject of a lot of drama after the team traded for former No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance to back up its franchise quarterback following a year in which Prescott threw a career-high in interceptions.

Prescott has traditionally been a very clean passer who makes few mistakes, but his 15 interceptions in 12 games last year has spooked a lot of analysts and fans. That said, it’s a new year, Prescott is healthy, and I don’t expect history to repeat itself.

While NFL betting sites have the Cowboys as the heavy odds-on favorites to win this game, the bet I like more than anything is Prescott throwing for over 236.5 passing yards on FanDuel at -114 odds.

(8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NBC)

My reasoning for Prescott having a field day passing is partially based on history, as he averages 262.3 yards per game against the Giants in his career. But it also has a lot to do with just how much better the Cowboys offensive roster figures to be this year.

In 2022, many of Prescott’s interceptions were off of his pass catchers’ hands. This year, they figure to be much more efficient and clean with the addition of wide receiver Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup being another year removed from a torn ACL, and Tony Pollard taking over as the lead back with Ezekiel Elliot out of the picture.

Dallas’ offensive line remains a huge strength and its defense is loaded. Micah Parsons is the favorite to win DPOY for a reason, with Stephon Gilmore being a huge addition in the secondary to pair with Trevon Diggs.

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All of that said, I have to acknowledge that Brian Daboll did an incredible job as the Giants head coach last year, leading New York to the playoffs and double-digit wins in a year most thought would be a rebuilding one. He has even more pieces to work with entering his second year.

That includes tight end Darren Waller, who according to training camp beat reporters appears to look like the version of himself that tallied over 1,000 yards in 2019 and 2020. Rookie wide receiver Jalin Hyatt also figures to add an explosive element to an offense that still has Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones.

But while it’s possible the Giants defensive line is better than a year ago, New York was the fifth-worst passing defense a year ago and I’m not sure that’ll change due to youth in the secondary.

Both of the Giants cornerbacks are rookies and their safeties are still very young into their NFL careers as well. Combine that with this being Pollard’s first game since breaking his leg in last year’s playoffs, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dallas air the ball out plenty on Sunday night.

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History will only be so instructive in telling us who will win this game, as Dallas and New York have both lost four of their last five season openers. But history tells us Prescott averages 267.3 passing yards per game in career Week 1 games.

Banking on Prescott this year in Week 1 will require him doing far better than last year when Dallas lost to the Buccaneers by a measly score of 19-3. In that game, Prescott only completed 14 passes for 134 yards.

I see this game being an offensive shootout. There are just too many explosive offensive players on the field for this not to be high scoring, as I can see both teams putting up 30 points.

With Cooks, Gallup and Lamb all healthy, the Cowboys will want to see how they mesh early. While I still expect Pollard to get some good run, him coming off an injury and this being the first time in his career being a featured back make me wonder just how many carries he’ll get.

Prescott may not be perfect Sunday night, but I find it hard to believe he can’t go over FanDuel’s passing prop for him given the Giants’ inexperience at cornerback and history showing he’s a better passer than last year’s bad tape and statistics.

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