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Cowboys vs. Packers prediction: Ride red-hot Dallas at Lambeau Field

With two teams going in completely opposite directions, back the team that’s on the rise

Dallas Cowboys pass rusher and NFL Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons (left) leads a defense that heads into Sunday's game at Green Bay having held six of eight opponents to less than 20 points. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Dallas Cowboys pass rusher and NFL Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons (left) leads a defense that heads into Sunday's game at Green Bay having held six of eight opponents to less than 20 points. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)Read moreRichard Rodriguez / Getty Images

History tells us that any Cowboys vs. Packers prediction should end with a nod toward the underdog.

In the last seven meetings between these storied NFL franchises, the team catching points has covered six times and recorded five outright victories. That includes four consecutive upsets in the last four head-to-head clashes, the last three of which Green Bay has won.

So when these teams resume their rivalry Sunday at Lambeau Field, you have to grab the points Aaron Rodgers and the Packers — especially since they’re a home underdog.

Or do you? This, after all, is not even close to the same Green Bay team we’ve seen in recent years. Meanwhile, Dallas is scorching hot, both on the field and at the betting window.

So which way are we going with our Cowboys vs. Packers prediction?

Note: Odds updated as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Nov. 11.

Cowboys vs. Packers Prediction

  1. Cowboys -4.5 (at BetMGM)

Cowboys vs. Packers Prediction: Analysis

This is a totally square play — we absolutely get it. But there’s no other way to go with this game.

More importantly, there’s no way we can recommend putting money on the Packers right now.

Green Bay has lost five consecutive games, averaging a paltry 11.5 points per outing (not a misprint). And since we said goodbye to September, the Packers are 1-5 against the spread. The one cover? A backdoor job at Buffalo two weeks ago (27-17 loss as a 10.5-point underdog).

» READ MORE: How to bet the Eagles, Penn State and Temple games this weekend

Green Bay’s follow up to that? Sunday’s putrid 15-9 loss at the lowly Lions — a team whose defense had surrendered an average of 36 points in its first four home games.

As if their on-field performance wasn’t enough to fade the Packers, get a load of the routes they have taken to get to this game:

Since a Week 2 home win over the Bears, the Packers have gone from Green Bay to Tampa Bay (win), back to Green Bay (overtime win vs. Patriots), to London (loss to the Giants), back to Green Bay (loss to the Jets), then three straight road losses at Washington, Buffalo and Detroit.

That brutal itinerary — coupled with a boatload of defeats — will zap the life out of a team, especially one that has fallen so far short of expectations this year.

Thus far, Green Bay has faced four legit playoff teams. It lost all four by point margins of 16 (Vikings), 5 (Giants), 17 (Jets) and 10 (Bills), with Rodgers putting up an average of 14 points per contest.

So now we’re supposed to believe the Packers are suddenly going to spring to life against the Cowboys, who have won and covered six of their last seven games (including four behind their backup quarterback)? Who are coming off a bye? And who are allowing the third-fewest points per game in the NFL (16.6)?

No, thank you.

As we mentioned in our Week 10 NFL trends report, there isn’t another NFL team that has put more money in bettors’ pockets the last two seasons than Dallas. In 25 regular-season games since Week 1 of the 2021-22 campaign, Mike McCarthy’s squad is:

  1. 19-6 ATS overall

  2. 10-2 ATS on the road (2-1 this year)

  3. 13-3 ATS as a favorite (3-0 this year)

  4. 9-3 ATS when laying 5 or more points

  5. 5-0 ATS as a road favorite (all five wins by 6 or more points)

Given all this, one can’t help but ask: Why did the Cowboys-Packers point spread drop from Dallas -5 to Dallas -4.5 at multiple sportsbooks? Especially with several books acknowledging this week how much money has been wagered on the Cowboys?

Beats us. Maybe this is a classic trap. Maybe Green Bay flips a switch and pulls off the upset (or at least finds a way to cover the spread). Maybe Dallas gets caught looking ahead to next week’s game at 7-1 Minnesota.

Maybe all of that. But we’re not betting on it. No way — not after what we saw from the Packers in Detroit.

Lay the points with the Cowboys in a game their defense should absolutely dominate.

Cowboys vs. Packers Odds (via BetMGM):

  1. Point spread: Cowboys (-4.5) @ Packers (+4.5)

  2. Moneyline: Cowboys (-225) @ Packers (+180)

  3. Total: 44 points

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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