Back the under on Zack Wilson’s passing yards vs stout Eagles pass rush on Sunday

It’s no secret Zack Wilson has been arguably the least effective starting quarterbacks in the NFL over the last three years. The former second overall pick has a career completion percentage of 56.3 and a career 19 to 23 TD to INT ratio.

However, credit is due for Wilson completing over 70% of his passes the last two weeks and looking especially confident against the Kansas City Chiefs in primetime two weeks ago.

That being said, the Philadelphia Eagle pass rush is as ferocious as they come. FanDuel has Wilson’s passing yards prop at 198.5 points, and I don’t see him hitting that this week.

(Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST, Fox)

One of the most stunning stats I’ve ever seen in the NFL is the Eagles being 12-0 against the Jets all-time. These teams battled in Wilson’s rookie year, where the Jets signal-caller put up 226 yards, two touchdowns, and a 83.9 QBR.

The Jets offense is improved in some ways from that team two years ago but are worse off in other areas. On the plus side, Breece Hall is fully healthy with an astonishing 7.2 YPC average this year.

Wilson also has a true number one wide receiver in Garrett Wilson, who remains incredibly talented despite a significant drop in his numbers.

But his offensive line is worse due to Alijah Vera-Tucker and Duane Brown being on IR, while Mekhi Becton is struggling while playing through injury. Wilson is the league’s ninth most sacked quarterback.

As rough as it is to watch their offense, New York’s defense is a strength. They’ve forced timely turnovers all year long and have made key stops time and time again.

Although statistics show them being a bad run defense and being an average unit most everywhere else, New York’s defense gives them a chance to at least keep games close every week.

The Eagles defense is similar in a lot of ways. The statistics show them being poor against the pass, as they rank 25th. But they’ve also forced key turnovers at times and have held good Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams offenses to 14 or less points.

Even if their secondary is a step slower than last year, their much heralded pass rush has stepped up in their place. I could go on and on listing players, but I’ll highlight Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter for bringing a lot of young production to what was already a great unit.

Offensively, we don’t need to worry about Jalen Hurts’ passing game struggles anymore. Hurts has been electric in his last two games, with him contributing a productive effort on the run last week as well.

We’ve seen this team be able to win on the ground and through the air, which makes them very dangerous. Their offensive line is arguably the best run blocking unit in the league and did better against the pass last week than they did all year before that.

As I said atop this piece, I give Wilson credit for putting together what was arguably the best game of his career against the reigning Super Bowl champions in primetime two weeks ago. But passing for a lot of yards has never been his strong suit.

In his 27 career starts, he’s gone over 198.5 passing yards just 12 times. With the subtraction of the offensive line’s best player in Vera Tucker against an Eagles front seven that’s deep on the edge and interior, you have a recipe for Wilson to be seeing ghosts.

Wilson is good at scrambling out of the pocket, but he still holds onto the ball too long like a rookie does and takes sacks that a third year player should know better than to take.

It’s possible the Jets defense keeps this game close. If that happens, expect the Jets to lean on the ground game far more than Wilson’s arm. But even if it turns into a blowout, I don’t like this matchup whatsoever for Wilson.

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