NFL Draft odds: Will at least five QBs be picked in the first round?

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It’s unofficially officially official: In six days, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell will step onto a stage in Kansas City, get showered with boos and say, “With the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers select Bryce Young, quarterback, Alabama.”

After much odds jockeying over the past two-plus months, Young is now the overwhelming favorite in NFL Draft betting markets to be the first player off the board when the event kicks off Thursday.

The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner is currently -1200 at FanDuel, -1400 at Caesars Sportsbook and -2000 at BetMGM to be the fifth quarterback to go No. 1 overall in the last six years.

But how many other quarterbacks will hear Goodell utter their names in Thursday’s first round? That very question can be found in the form of a prop bet on NFL Draft odds boards at multiple sportsbooks.

The quick answer: Almost certainly four — but perhaps five.

Odds updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET on April 21.

Five years ago, the Cleveland Browns used the No. 1 overall pick on Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield. Hours later, the Baltimore Ravens used the 32nd and final first-round pick on Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson.

In between, the New York Jets (Sam Darnold), Buffalo Bills (Josh Allen) and Arizona Cardinals (Josh Rosen) used their first-round picks on quarterbacks.

It was the first time this century — and only the second time since the historic 1983 quarterback class that included the names John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino — that five quarterbacks came off the board in the opening round.

Surely that 2018 NFL Draft would go down in history as an outlier in terms of first-round quarterback selections. Except it didn’t.

Just three years later, not only did five quarterbacks once again get gobbled up in the first round, but they were gone within the first 15 picks. And for the first time since 1999, three QBs — in this case, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance — went 1-2-3.

Could we be headed for another first round dominated by the most important position in football (if not all of sports)?

If you believe Caesars Sportsbook, there’s about a 50-50 shot. If you believe FanDuel, it’s more unlikely than likely.

Caesars has its NFL Draft prop of total quarterbacks selected in the first round priced at 4.5, Over -110/Under -120.

FanDuel comes in at 4.5, Over +102/Under -138.

The drama, of course, revolves around the point-five “hook” on this prop. And the lead actor in this particular drama is an athletically gifted quarterback from Tennessee who happens to be recovering from knee surgery.

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There are question marks — and in some cases significant question marks — hovering over every quarterback in the 2023 class.

That even includes Young, who has all the tools and intangibles to be a franchise quarterback, save for one flaw he can’t do anything about: He’s nowhere near his listed height of 5-foot-10.

Despite the reality that there is no Peyton Manning-like can’t-miss prospect among this year’s crop of QBs, it’s a near certainty that four will get scooped up in the first round — and perhaps all within the top dozen or so selections.

Those quarterbacks, in some order, will be: Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis and Florida’s Anthony Richardson.

Also a near certainty: Only one other passer has a realistic shot of sneaking into the first round. That’s Hendon Hooker, who was the 2022 Heisman Trophy frontrunner until he blew out his knee in Tennessee’s penultimate regular season game.

Most draftniks have had Hooker on the wrong side of the first round in their seemingly never-ending mock-draft projections. However, the buzz around Hookier has ramped up in recent days, with some forecasting that he not only could sneak into the first round but zoom past one (or more) of the guys ahead of him in the projection pecking order.

Of course, as with all things NFL Draft related, it ultimately comes down to need. That is: How many teams are in desperate need of a quarterback?

And of those teams, how many are so worried about missing out on “the guy” that they might divert from their big-board game plan and use a first-round pick on a second-round talent?

That’s certainly what Hooker is hoping for. And it’s something we expect, primarily because the answer to that first question — How many teams are in desperate need of a quarterback? — is this: A lot.

No fewer than six organizations currently lack a legitimate franchise quarterback: the Panthers, Colts, Texans, Buccaneers, Falcons and Commanders. And a bunch of others — including the Seahawks, Raiders, Titans, Jets, Saints, Vikings, Broncos and Rams — will need one very soon.

Out of those 14 teams, it’s difficult to believe that at least five won’t have a new rookie quarterback on the roster when the sun rises Friday morning.

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