Back low scoring affair between the Panthers and Bears Thursday

The Panthers vs Bears Thursday Night Football game has the potential to be one of the ugliest offensive showcases of the year. Carolina being 1-7 and Chicago being 2-7 only begins to tell the story of these teams’ seasons.

The winner of this game may come down to whichever team makes less bad plays, which makes it hard for me to want to bet on the spread or moneyline. Oddsmakers see this game as a close one too with spreads of three or 3.5 points across different sportsbooks.

That’s why I’m focusing in on the totals market for this game and am hammering the under 38.5 points set by FanDuel at odds of -110.

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(Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime Video)

Offense has been hard to come by for these teams due to varying reasons. In Carolina’s case, rookie Bryce Young has had as unforgettable and mistake-prone rookie season while Justin Fields has missed the last three games and was up and down when he did play.

The biggest detriment to young quarterbacks are bad offensive lines, which is something both teams fall victim to. Young has been sacked 26 times this year, Fields was sacked 24 times in his six games, and Tyson Bagent has been sacked five times in relief of Fields.

Rushing offense is the area these offenses differ most. The Panthers have been ineffective on the ground all season with the 24th most rushing yards per game (Down form last year’s tenth ranked attack) and an average of 3.9 yards per tote.

On the flip side, the Bears average 4.6 yards per carry and average the fourth most rushing yards per game. Khalil Herbert will be absent Thursday, giving D’onta Foreman the nod.

Chicago’s excellence in the rushing department isn’t just on the offensive side of the ball. They allow the fourth fewest rushing yards per game on defense and lead the NFL in opponent yards per rush attempt.

The opposite is true of Carolina’s 28th ranked rushing defense. They allow 149.3 yards per game on the road this year, potentially setting up Foreman for a massive day.

Interestingly enough, the Bears’ defense which excels against the run struggles mightily against the pass. Similarly, Carolina’s bad against the run but is an excellent pass defense. The Bears and Panthers respectively rank 28th and fifth in passing yards per game allowed.

The similarities between these teams continues when looking at penalties. Chicago averages 7.8 penalties per game at home while Carolina get eight whistles per game against them on the road.

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Of all the times I’ve bet the under this season, this game is the most confident I’ve been picking the under on a totals market. Totals markets can be tricky to bet, but this game has all the makings of an ugly offensive game for both sides.

In addition to everything I mentioned in the analysis portion, there’s something to be said about the effects of playing on a short week. That holds even more truth when you consider the two quarterbacks in this game have combined for 11 starts.

Outside of Adam Thielen and D.J. Moore, these teams lack reliable weapons who can make their quarterback and offense as a whole better. Without help from their skill position players, I don’t have faith in Young or Bagent to put up many points.

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