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Titans vs. Packers prediction: Bet on Green Bay to deliver at home on TNF

Look for the Packers to cool off red-hot but road-weary Tennessee in Week 11 opener

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are 1-6 in their last seven games. Despite that, the Packers are a 3-point home favorite Thursday night against the Tennessee Titans, who are 6-1 in their last seven. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are 1-6 in their last seven games. Despite that, the Packers are a 3-point home favorite Thursday night against the Tennessee Titans, who are 6-1 in their last seven. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)Read morePatrick McDermott / Getty Images

Ever so quietly, the Tennessee Titans have won six of their last seven games. More impressive from a sports bettor’s viewpoint: The Titans enter their Thursday Night Football battle at the Packers having covered the point spread in each of those seven contests.

None of the other 31 teams currently have an ATS winning streak longer than two games.

So not backing the Titans (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) as an underdog against the sub-.500 Packers (4-6 SU and ATS) seems insane. Well, we’re going against the hottest spread-covering team in the land.

Here’s our Titans vs. Packers prediction for Thursday Night Football.

Note: Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Nov. 16.

Titans vs. Packers Prediction

  1. Packers -3, -115 (at BetMGM)

Titans vs. Packers Prediction: Analysis

Let’s start with a mea culpa: While we made a well-reasoned argument, we missed with Sunday’s pick of the Cowboys -4 at Green Bay. Then again, we weren’t counting on Dallas blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead for the first time in franchise history.

Credit to the Packers for being the team to end the Cowboys’ 195-game winning streak when leading by two touchdowns with 15 minutes to play. But that’s not the reason we’re switching gears and siding with Green Bay, which basically needed a miracle to end its six-game losing streak.

» READ MORE: Eagles-Colts line on the move after Eagles drop first game

No, we simply believe that, regardless of what the records say, the Packers are the better team Thursday night. And they’re absolutely in the better situation.

How can we suggest that a team with one lucky win in its last seven games is better than an opponent that has just one defeat in its last seven — an overtime defeat on the road? Look at the competition.

Since opening the season with losses to the Giants and Bills — two playoff contenders that are a combined 13-5 on the season — Tennessee has picked up six victories against the Raiders, Colts (twice), Commanders, Texans and Broncos.

Combined record of those five squads entering Week 11: 15-30-2, with Washington (5-5) being the best of the bunch.

Actually, you could easily argue that the Titans’ lone loss since Week 2 — a 20-17 Sunday night overtime setback at Kansas City — inspires more confidence than any of their seven wins.

On the other hand, eight of Green Bay’s 10 opponents are at or above .500. And seven of those foes — Vikings, Bucs, Patriots, Giants, Jets, Bills and Cowboys — are legitimate playoff contenders.

True, the Packers only defeated three of those teams by a combined eight points, with two of those wins coming at home in overtime. But that’s three more victories than Tennessee has against playoff contenders.

» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts still among favorites to win NFL MVP in star-studded field

As to the situational element mentioned earlier, Tennessee is playing its third road game in the last four weeks and its fifth in the last seven. Meanwhile, Green Bay is playing consecutive home games for the first time this season.

That’s a huge deal, and not just because of the short-week factor. As we noted last week, the Packers endured a brutal seven-week odyssey that saw them travel from Green Bay to London, then back to Green Bay before embarking on a three-game road trip to Washington, Buffalo and Detroit — all between Oct. 2 and Nov. 6.

Will this game be easy for the Packers? Highly unlikely, because the Titans are never an easy out. But Tennessee has the most one-dimensional offense in football — behind workhorse running back Derrick Henry, the Titans rank ninth in rushing but 31st in passing and 32nd in total yards.

That’s translated into the 26th-worst scoring offense. Tennessee has yet to score more than 24 points this season, finishing with 21 or fewer in seven games (including the last five in a row).

Green Bay’s offense hasn’t been much better. But the 31-point eruption against a solid Dallas defensive unit is a strong sign that Rodgers and co. have turned a corner. And just in time, as they’re going up against a Titans defense that allows the second-most passing yards in the NFL.

Let that fact sink in as you peruse the list of quarterbacks Tennessee has faced this year:

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes (two studs who passed for a combined 763 yards and five TDs against the Titans), plus Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan (twice), Carson Wentz, Davis Mills and a rapidly regressing Russell Wilson.

Unless their shaky run defense gets absolutely trucked by Henry, the Packers should defend their home turf and prevail by more than a field goal against a road-weary opponent that struggles to score.

Lay the points Thursday night with Green Bay at BetMGM.

Titans vs. Packers Odds (via BetMGM):

  1. Point spread: Titans (+3, -105) @ Packers (-3, -115)

  2. Moneyline: Titans (+140) @ Packers (-165)

  3. Total: 41 points

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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