Golden Knights vs. Stars prediction: Backing Dallas is best bet for Game 6

Imagine a world where both the Celtics and Stars come back from 3-0 deficits in their Conference Finals series. Right now, the market thinks there’s about a 55% chance of that happening, headlining our Golden Knights vs. Stars prediction for Game 6.

If I’m right, expect a second Game 7 later this week.

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

Dallas has outplayed Vegas in every possible way during this series. The Stars have dominated the Corsi For battle (54.2 CF%), generated more shots (153 to 128) and won the expected goals battle (12.5 to 10.7).

The Stars even should’ve won some of the games where Vegas dominated. Per Money Puck’s advanced box scores, the Stars had a post-game win expectancy mark of 79% in Game 3 (4-0 Vegas win) and 55% in Game 2 (3-2 Vegas win).

The Stars out-shot Vegas 34 to 16 in Game 3 yet lost in a blowout.

Where was the issue?

It was Jake Oettinger. The stud goalie no-showed in the team’s second-round series against Seattle and then struggled through the first three games of the Western Conference Finals.

However, Oettinger has bounced back over the past two games. He posted positive Goals Saved Above Expected marks over the past 120 minutes, most importantly out-shining opposing goaltender Adin Hill.

» READ MORE: Celtics defeat Heat in Game 6, open as big favorites to win Game 7 and make history

If Oettinger has truly rebounded – and I believe he has – the Stars should be overwhelming favorites at home in Game 6. The goaltending advantage was the biggest thing the Stars have in this series, and although it’s favored Vegas for most of these playoffs, it seems that water is finally finding its level.

The Stars have more top-end talent, beginning with Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski and Tyler Seguin. While Vegas is generally deeper, the Stars are gaining depth for the final two games with Jamie Benn back from his two-game suspension.

The Stars have similar 5-on-5 metrics compared to Vegas and are much better on special teams. They’ve been very unlucky, but the tide has turned, and I expect them to use this momentum to force a Game 7.

I think we’re getting enough value at (-130) to play Dallas in this spot.

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