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Kraken vs. Stars prediction: Bet on undervalued Seattle in Game 5

Check out our preview and prediction for Kraken vs. Stars Game 5.

Martin Jones of the Seattle Kraken looks on during the third period against the Dallas Stars in Game Four of the Second Round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Climate Pledge Arena on May 09, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Martin Jones of the Seattle Kraken looks on during the third period against the Dallas Stars in Game Four of the Second Round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Climate Pledge Arena on May 09, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)Read moreSteph Chambers / Getty Images

Seattle and Dallas have battled during this series, setting up our Kraken vs. Stars prediction for Game 5.

Seattle must’ve felt solid after taking Game 3 in Dallas 7-2, but the Stars quickly retaliated with a 6-3 victory in Game 4.

This series feels destined to go deep, but the Stars are a heavy Game 5 favorite.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

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Kraken vs. Stars Prediction:

  1. Seattle Kraken ML (+162) | Play to ML (+150)

Kraken vs. Stars Prediction: Analysis

Jake Oettinger is a huge reason why the Stars were going to succeed in these playoffs, yet he’s been mediocre against these Kraken.

Oettinger has recorded -4.95 Goals Saved Above Expected through four games with a .860 save percentage. Those are not the numbers you expect from a supposedly elite postseason goaltender.

Meanwhile, Seattle goaltender Philipp Grubauer has played better. Even if he collapsed in Game 4, his postseason numbers give me faith he can continue contributing at an above-average level.

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The Kraken and Stars are two defensive-minded teams, so goaltending could be the difference between a 1-0 win and an 0-1 loss. So far, I give Seattle the advantage in that area.

Moreover, I’d argue Seattle has been the better overall team during this series. The Kraken won the even-strength Expected Goals Share battle in three of four series games, boasting a 53.4% mark in Game 4.

The Stars lost the 5-on-5 battle in Game 4. So, while they managed to convert two of their three power play opportunities while killing both of the Kraken’s power play chances, they should see regression based on even-strength play.

If the Kraken can avoid penalties in Game 5, this game is more of a coin flip than the market implies, especially if you give the unexpected goaltending advantage to Seattle.

At the time of writing, the Action Network App has tracked sharp and smart money on the Kraken, meaning pro bettors are on Seattle’s side in Game 5. At the minimum, I agree they win this game more than the betting line implies.

Kraken vs. Stars Odds (via FanDuel):

Moneyline: Kraken (+162) vs. Stars (-200)

Spread: Kraken +1.5 (-152) vs. Stars -1.5 (+126)

Total: Over 5.5 (-132) | Under 5.5 (+108)

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