2023 Stanley Cup Final Predictions: Bet these two futures in Golden Knights-Panthers series

The bookies are having a hard time separating the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers.

At the time of writing, the Knights are -130 favorites over the Panthers, which would be the tightest odds in the Stanley Cup Final since the Pittsburgh Penguins were roughly the same price against the San Jose Sharks in 2016.

Odds via BetMGM, current at time of writing and subject to change.

On the surface, it may not make much sense for the odds in this series to be this tight since Vegas finished with the best record in the Western Conference, while Florida snuck into the tournament as the No. 8 seed in the East, but the fact that the Knights are just slight favorites tells you a couple of things.

For one, it shows just how much respect the Panthers have earned with their run through the Eastern Conference gauntlet. Florida has lost just four games this postseason and three of those came in a series against the record-setting Boston Bruins.

The Cats may have needed every bit of the regular season to get into the playoffs, but they’ve earned their way to the Stanley Cup Final.

Secondly, the market is telling us there are some questions about the Golden Knights. And the obvious one to ask is about the goaltending.

Adin Hill has been superb since stepping in for Laurent Brossoit at the end of Round 2, but Hill’s career numbers are much closer to average than the elite stats he’s posted during this playoff run. Hill has skated to a .937 save percentage and a +6.4 Goals Saved Above Expected in the 11 games he’s featured in for Vegas this spring.

» READ MORE: 2023 Stanley Cup Final odds: Golden Knights slight favorites over Panthers

There are legitimate questions to ask of the Panthers, too, of course. Sergei Bobrovsky has been a world-beater in goal for the Cats, but expecting him to maintain that level seems a steep ask. If Bobrovsky comes down to earth, will Florida’s defense — which he’s bailed out time and again during this tournament — be exposed?

Another conundrum is how the two-week layoff is going to impact Florida. The Cats were on such a roll for three rounds, that it’s fair to wonder if getting a fortnight off is helpful or hurtful. Sure, getting everyone healthy and rested should be a good thing, but there’s something to be said about staying in rhythm when you’re white hot.

It’s a boring answer, but it does seem like the bookmakers have priced this series about right. There are too many questions for both teams that are too hard to answer to get involved in the series price when it is so tight.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t some bets with value ahead of Game 1.

 There is very little doubt that Sergei Bobrovsky or Matthew Tkachuk will win the Conn Smythe Award if Florida wins the Stanley Cup, but the race for Playoff MVP is pretty open if Vegas lifts the trophy. Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson are all priced between +400 and +650, but Barbashev has similar numbers (he’s three points back of Eichel for the team lead in the playoffs) and is sitting at 15 times the price. Barbashev would need a monster series to win this thing, but he’s in great form and plays on the No. 1 line. It’s not out of the question.

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This is a bet I’ve made in each of the past two rounds and I have no problem going back to the well for a third time, despite Cousins only scoring twice in the last two series. It’s all about opportunity. The veteran forward plays on Florida’s best line with Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett, so he has a much better chance of getting hot than your run-of-the-mill 200/1 long shot.

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