Penn State vs. Northwestern prediction: Nittany Lions will continue winning ways

Prior to the start of the 2022-23 season, Penn State was projected to finish 11th in the 14-team Big Ten. The Nittany Lions ended up tied for ninth.

Northwestern was picked to finish 13th in the league standings. The Wildcats ended up tied for second.

Needless to say, nobody back in November envisioned either team advancing to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. But one team will, because Friday’s Penn State vs. Northwestern clash is the third of four quarterfinal matchups at the United Center in Chicago.

This particular matchup? It involves two schools with a combined 27-49 record in the 25-year history of the Big Ten Tournament — and that includes the Nittany Lions’ upset of Illinois in Thursday’s second round.

Despite Penn State being the No. 10 seed and — and despite the second-seeded Wildcats earning a double-bye into the quarterfinals — oddsmakers have pegged this as a near pick-em battle.

Our wagering recommendation? Back the feisty underdog, which is three points away from a seven-game winning streak.

Odds updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET on March 10.

The Nittany Lions (19-12, 17-13-1) are developing quite the habit of playing down-to-the-wire nail-biters.

They’re also developing quite the habit of winning those heart-stoppers.

Thursday’s 79-76 victory over Illinois was the latest such instance, as Penn State survived a see-saw affair that featured numerous lead changes for the first 23½ minutes of action.

With 6:30 to play, though, the Nittany Lions grabbed a 58-56 lead and never looked back, prevailing as a 2.5-point underdog — against an opponent that was picked to win the Big Ten before the season.

It was Penn State’s fourth Big Ten tourney victory in its last six games (5-0-1 ATS). Of more relevance, it was the team’s sixth win in its last seven contests overall.

The five most recent games? They were decided by a total of 14 points.

The only slip-up for the Nittany Lions in their last seven outings was a 59-56 home loss to Rutgers as a 3.5-point favorite on Feb. 26.

Three days later, Penn State traveled to Evanston, Illinois, and got back on track. After trailing by four points at halftime, the Nittany Lions rallied and outlasted Northwestern 68-65 in overtime as a 4.5-point underdog in the only regular season meeting between the schools.

That result, along with Thursday’s upset of Illinois, gives Penn State four consecutive outright victories as an underdog. The team also covered as a 7.5-point pup in a 74-68 loss at Maryland on Feb. 11.

So the Nittany Lions are on a 5-0 ATS run when catching points. And they’re catching a couple more points Friday — and erroneously so in our opinion.

» READ MORE: CBB predictions: Three picks for Friday’s conference tournament action

Because while Northwestern (21-10, 19-12) had a tremendous regular season that led to its first-ever Big Ten Tournament double-bye, the Wildcats petered out down the stretch.

The overtime defeat to Penn State capped a three-game losing skid that followed a five-game winning streak (all of them outright upsets).

Northwestern did pick up another upset victory in Sunday’s regular season finale at Rutgers, snapping the three-game slide with a 65-53 rout as a five-point underdog. It was a terrific get-right win that secured the No. 2 seed in this week’s tournament.

That triumph aside, the fact is the Wildcats are scuffling on offense. In 10 games since the beginning of February, they have scored more than 65 points just twice: a 69-63 win at Ohio State and an 80-60 home victory over Iowa (which doesn’t play much defense).

Penn State, on the other hand, has scored at least 65 points in eight of its last nine games, including 74 or more five times.

Now, obviously, Northwestern’s calling card is its defense — among Big Ten members, the Wildcats ranked second to Rutgers in scoring defense over the full season.

However, that defense was much stingier at home than on the road. To that point: Northwestern held eight of its last nine visitors to 65 points or less in regulation. That includes impressive upset of Purdue (64-58) at Indiana (64-62).

However, the Wildcats have surrendered an average of 69.6 points in their last nine away from Evanston — and that includes solid efforts at Rutgers (53) and Wisconsin (52).

This rematch with Penn State isn’t a true road game, of course. In fact, Northwestern figures to have a decided crowd edge with the game taking place just 20 miles from campus.

But the Nittany Lions faced a partisan crowd Thursday against Illinois and put 79 points on the Illini (who surrendered just 67 ppg coming in).

Will Penn State have an easy go of it Friday? Doubtful, because the Wildcats are a solid team. And because the Nittany Lions haven’t had an easy go of it against anyone lately.

But they keep on winning by the skin of their teeth. And we believe they’ll do so again and reach the Big Ten Tournament semifinals for just the second time since 2021.

Play Penn State on the moneyline at Caesars Sportsbook.

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