Bet on a high scoring first five innings in series finale between the Phillies and Dodgers

While it’s hard to fathom that the Phillies are winless in their last six series, they’ll get a chance to snap that losing streak against the Dodgers on Wednesday night.

The Phillies lost the series opener 5-3 after a disastrous four-run inning in the third to wipe out a 2-0 lead. They bounced back with a 6-2 win in Game 2. Cristopher Sánchez pitched six strong innings of one-run ball while Clayton Kershaw remained on a pitch count (81).

Wednesday’s matchup features two less experienced pitchers: Dodgers second-year starter Gavin Stone and Phillies rookie Tyler Phillips. Both will have to navigate their way through some very difficult opposing lineups.

Odds via DraftKings

If you’re looking to back Phillips in this spot, there is certainly reason for concern. After all, we already see signs of regression, as evidenced by his 5.16 FIP vs. his 4.39 ERA.

According to FanGraphs, Phillips isn’t offering deception at the major league level, as opposing hitters are barreling up 14.3% of his pitches. Moreover, his 24.7% Called Plus Swinging Strike Rate (CSW) is well below elite status for pitchers.

While Phillips does have a five-pitch arsenal, he prefers to feature his sinker (33%) more than his four-seam fastball (14.4%). His slider actually has the highest usage rate at 34.3%.

One might think he profiles more as a ground-ball pitcher, given his sinker-slider combination. However, his 0.97 groundball-flyball ratio tells a different story.

It’s worth noting Phillips will face a Dodgers lineup that ranks third in runs above average (+32) when facing his two dominant pitches.

Stone failed to make it out of the fifth inning in the Dodgers’ 4-3 loss to Philadelphia on July 10, allowing four runs on nine hits.

His major league debut also came against the Phillies in a 10-6 home victory. However, he received a no-decision after allowing five runs (four earned) on eight hits. In 42 plate appearances, this Phillies roster is hitting .410 against Stone, with a .441 wOBA.

Stone does have a nice arsenal, varying his pitches between a changeup (26.6%), four-seamer (24.6%), sinker (23.8%) and slider (15.7%). Unfortunately for him, the Phillies are an above-average team against all four of those pitches, with a +42.9 run-scoring mark.

Given the sample size and Stone’s appearances against the Phillies in each of the last two seasons, there’s enough evidence to suggest he could be in line for another difficult outingon Wednesday.

We’ve already seen a move on the total, which has been bet up a half-run after opening at 8.5. While I agree with the move, I prefer to target the over of 4.5 runs in the first five innings. Given these two potent offenses, neither starter is likely to make it through the fifth inning.

In addition to the series win at stake, both teams are battling for home-field advantage in the National League and throughout the playoffs, with the Dodgers trailing the Phillies by 1.5 games.

Look for these offenses to jump out to a fast start in the early frames of the game.

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