Phillies vs. White Sox prediction: Back high-scoring run total in doubleheader opener

Following a roller-coaster weekend in Cincinnati — and an unscheduled day off Monday — the Philadelphia Phillies resume their seven-game road trip with a traditional doubleheader Tuesday in Chicago against the White Sox.

The interleague clash involves teams that have been mirror images of one another in the early going:

Both come into Tuesday’s twinbill sporting disappointing 6-10 records.

Both have two of the worst pitching staffs in all of baseball (Philadelphia ranks 27th in overall team ERA and 29th in bullpen ERA; Chicago is 28th and 30th, respectively).

And both have crossed home plate with similar frequency (the Phillies have scored 75 runs; the White Sox 74).

So what’s the best way to attack Phillies vs. White Sox from a wagering perspective Tuesday? By betting on the hitters and against the pitchers — at least in the opening game of the doubleheader.

Odds updated as of 10:15 a.m. ET on April 18.

First, a quick weather update: Monday night’s scheduled series opener was called off hours before the scheduled first pitch because of frigid temperatures, damp air and gale-force winds.

Only one of those elements will stick around for Tuesday’s two contests: It’s going to be chilly, with temps barely above 50 when Game 1 begins (and dropping a bit from there). Otherwise, it’ll be dry with minimal breezes on the south side of the Windy City.

That chilly air and moderate wind — which was howling out to center field Monday — figure to work in favor of Phillies Game 1 starting pitcher Zack Wheeler and his counterpart, Chicago’s Lance Lynn.

But enough to keep fewer than eight runners from crossing home plate — especially with two crappy bullpens waiting in the wings? Call us skeptical.

As it is, there are a lot of statistics that suggest Wheeler vs. Lynn won’t exactly turn into Koufax vs. Gibson, let alone Maddux vs. Clemens.

Let’s start with Lynn, who has already yielded six home runs in three starts this season while pitching a total of 16 innings.

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Lynn surrendered half of those six home runs in his only start at home, a 16-6 loss to the San Francisco Giants. Beyond the gopher balls, the veteran right-hander has ghastly numbers — both in terms of traditional stats (7.31 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) and advanced metrics (.342 BABIP, 7.07 FIP and 6.80 xERA).

Lynn will be facing a feast-or-famine Phillies’ lineup that over the last seven games has scored 37 runs in three contests (15, 8 and 14) and eight runs in the other four (4, 2, 2 and 0).

But it’s a lineup that leads MLB in team batting average (.297) and doubles (41) while ranking second in OPS (.812).

What about Wheeler? He was much better in his last two starts (three runs allowed — including no homers — in 11 1/3 total innings) than he was in his first (five runs allowed in 4 1/3 innings). But the two recent outings were at home.

Wheeler’s one rough outing (and the only home run he’s surrendered) came in his season debut at Texas — a game Philadelphia lost 16-3.

Which leads us to this reminder: Wheeler was insanely better pitching at Citizens Bank Park last season (1.85 home ERA) than he was anywhere else (3.84 road ERA).

Even if Wheeler and Lynn put up more zeros than expect, the Over still will be in play. Because neither starter is likely to go more than six innings, which means baseball’s two worst bullpens with ERAs of 7.57 (Chicago) and 6.83 (Philadelphia) will get plenty of mound time.

Finally, several recent trends point to the likelihood of this being a high-scoring series.

Philadelphia hurdled the total in the final three games of its four-game weekend set in Cincinnati (victories of 8-3 and 14-3 sandwiched around a 13-0 loss). The Phillies also are on a 6-2 Over streak overall and have seen 11 or more runs scored in half of their 10 road games.

The White Sox are 10-4-2 to the Over this season, including 5-0-1 Over at home. Final scores in those six home games: 12-3, 7-3, 16-6, 6-3, 7-6 and 8-4.

Yup, every single game at the place formerly known as new Comiskey Park has topped eight runs — as have 11 of Chicago’s last 15 contests, regardless of venue.

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