Back Brighton as small home underdog against Liverpool in Sunday’s Premier League match

Every once in a while Brighton are going to get hammered. The Seagulls are one of the best -- and most exciting -- teams in all of Europe, but their high-risk, high-reward style of play means that if they’re not on song, things can get ugly quick.

We saw this happen to at the end of last season in a 5-1 defeat to Everton and twice already this season against West Ham and Aston Villa, but as ugly as these losses look, they’re no reason to be alarmed about Brighton. It’s just in their DNA.

In fact, Roberto Di Zerbi’s Seagulls seem to bounce back from these lopsided losses quite well. After losing to Everton late last season, Brighton shutout Arsenal, 3-0, in their next game. After getting pasted by West Ham, 3-1, in September, they reversed the score on Newcastle.

Brighton will look to continue that trend by following up a 6-1 loss to Aston Villa with a strong performance against Liverpool. The Reds are a +120 road favorite on the three-way moneyline.

This is a pretty interesting spot for Liverpool. The Reds lost to Tottenham in controversial fashion last weekend, but what really matters there is where Liverpool closed in the betting market for that contest. The reason that matters for this contest is that Spurs and Brighton actually profile very similarly and most power ratings will have very little separation between the two top-four contenders. So it’s no surprise that Brighton is essentially the same price as Spurs was for their home match against Liverpool last weekend.

And just like in that match, I think the home underdog is good value against Jurgen Klopp’s Reds.

Liverpool have enough offensive firepower to give a team like Brighton issues, but the same is true going the other way. Liverpool were quite leaky defensively last season and those same flaws have showed up again through the first two months of 2023-24. The Reds have only allowed seven goals through seven matches, but more should be coming as they rank ninth in big scoring chances allowed and 10th in non-penalty expected goals conceded.

Brighton’s all-action attack should keep Liverpool on its heels in this encounter and the Seagulls have had plenty of success against the Reds in the past, so I see no reason why you wouldn’t want to back the underdog in this spot.

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