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Can West Ham upset Liverpool as big underdog in Sunday’s Premier League match?

Are the Hammers a live underdog on the road on Sunday morning?

LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 16: James Ward-Prowse of West Ham United celebrates with team mate Jarrod Bowen after scoring their sides first goal during the Premier League match between West Ham United and Manchester City at London Stadium on September 16, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 16: James Ward-Prowse of West Ham United celebrates with team mate Jarrod Bowen after scoring their sides first goal during the Premier League match between West Ham United and Manchester City at London Stadium on September 16, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)Read moreJustin Setterfield / Getty Images

It hasn’t been a straightforward path so far, but Liverpool is in a good position through the first five weeks of the Premier League season. The Reds enter Matchweek 6 with a 4-1-0 (W-D-L) record and a +8 goal difference with 12 goals scored and four conceded. Everything looks just fine for Jurgen Klopp’s side as they try to bounce back from a disappointing campaign in 2022-23.

Bookmakers believe that the Reds have a good chance to pick up another three points on Sunday as they are -245 favorites on the three-way money line against West Ham United.

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Liverpool vs. West Ham United Analysis

Like Liverpool, West Ham also has its sights set on getting back on track after a lackluster 2022-23 campaign that saw them on the fringes of a relegation battle during the middle part of the season. The Hammers would eventually straighten up, but a 14th-place finish and a rough time in the transfer market had some folks wondering if West Ham would be in for another long campaign.

But it seems like one of David Moyes’ best skills as a manager is to prove the doubters wrong. Just when you think West Ham is on the ropes, Moyes gets them headed in the right direction. The Hammers have done just that in 2023-24 with a 3-1-1 start to the campaign despite a relatively tricky schedule.

West Ham have a reputation as being a sturdy defensive unit under Moyes, but this season has not gone that way just yet. The Hammers have allowed 10.2 expected goals through five matches, but it should be pointed out that they conceded 6.1 xG in two matches against Chelsea and Manchester City.

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Liverpool, meanwhile, have their own defensive issues. While their xG totals look fine, they are buoyed by two impressive performances in their last two matches against Aston Villa and Wolverhampton. There were a lot of questions about Liverpool’s defense before those performances and the eye test suggests that the Reds will need to improve without the ball if they do want to challenge Manchester City.

This will be a tricky matchup for Liverpool. West Ham aren’t going to come at them and want the ball, which means that their should be chances for the Hammers to take advantage of the Reds’ biggest weakness, which is their transition defense. Moyes has a reputation for being able to set his teams up well in these kind of spots and they’ve given Liverpool issues in the past, so I think this number is high enough to have a bite on the underdog.

Liverpool vs. West Ham United Analysis: Pick

  1. West Ham +550 (DraftKings)

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