Best 76ers vs Bucks player prop bets to target Thursday night

The Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks are the last two teams to tip off their 2023-24 NBA regular seasons. That’ll change Thursday with a matchup in which FanDuel favors Milwaukee by 6.5 points. The Bucks’ money line price is -230 while Philadelphia’s is +190.

Rather than focusing on the spread or moneyline markets, I’m honing in on a few prop bets in this game. My props are Khris Middleton over 15 points (+145), Tyrese Maxey over 3.5 rebounds (+124), and Tobias Harris over 1.5 made threes (-102).

(Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EST, ESPN)

Khris Middleton hasn’t been quite the same player the last two years as he was was when he helped the Bucks win the 2021 NBA Finals. Middleton’s efficiency dropped the following year across the board, but his point output remained strong.

But last season saw him play just 33 games. His efficiency and point production dropped as well, with him putting up just 15.1 points per game. With the recent addition of Damian Lillard, Middleton settles into a new role as the team’s third scoring option in his age 32 season.

Despite what I just mentioned about Middleton’s struggles the past two seasons, I was surprised to see +145 odds for his 15+ points prop. Throughout his career, Middleton is an enigmatic scorer who can score in a hurry when healthy.

He also got healthier as last season went along. In December of last year he averaged just 11.1 points per game. But that amount continued to grow each month, with March seeing him average 18.7 points per game.

The less attention defenses pay on Middleton will serve him better. Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo’s pick and role and isolation games will both warrant a lot of attention, freeing up Middleton to find pockets of space to operate out of from mid range or outside the arch.

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Just as I was surprised to see Middleton having the odds he had for his points prop, I was stunned to see +124 odds for Tyrese Maxey getting over 3.5 rebounds. While I acknowledge Maxey is just 6′ 2″, I feel incredibly confident he’ll get at least four rebounds.

For starters, James Harden’s absence leaves 5.6 rebounds per game from last season up for grabs. Rebounding is a hustle and effort statistic as much as it is skill in my opinion, and few players in the league hustle and put as much effort into every possession as Maxey.

The 22 year old averages just 2.7 rebounds per game in his career. But Maxey averaged 5.0 and 4.7 rebounds per game in the 76ers’ respective playoff series against the Nets and Celtics.

Getting 4.7 rebounds per game against a team with the size and defensive skill of Boston was a sign to me that he’s capable of scrapping and clawing his way to four rebounds against a team with arguably more size and length than any team in the league.

Maxey snagged four rebounds in two of Philadelphia’s meetings with Milwaukee last season. Lillard will be an easier matchup to get rebounds on than Jrue Holiday was last year as well.

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Rounding out by picks is Tobias Harris making at least two three pointers for -102 odds. Harris is one of the most controversial figures in the NBA due to his inconsistencies. That makes betting on him an experience that has you on the edge of your seat to say the least.

As inconsistent as Harris may be, he always seems to play well in season openers. Against Boston last year he drilled three shots from downtown and scored 18. In 2021 he contributed 20 points. Lastly, he hit two three pointers in Philadelphia’s 2019 season opener.

Harris’ career averages put him right at the edge of 1.5 triples per game with 1.4 being his average mark. Even if Harris isn’t a volume shooter from distance, he’s averaged no less than 13.7 points per game since the start of the 2012-13 season.

The absence of Harden also contributes to me expecting more shot attempts and makes for Harris. Maxey’s ability to charge the paint and the attention Joel Embiid will receive open up Harris for plenty of shot opportunities.

Philadelphia have always been a better team when Harris is prominently featured. I expect to to have a big role and convert at least two shots from distance in the first game of his age 31 season.

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