Back 49ers to cover as home favorites vs Cowboys in primetime matchup

I’ve gone back and forth on how I think the Cowboys vs 49ers game will go Sunday night. This game is a tight spread, with San Francisco being 3.5 point favorites at home on FanDuel.

These teams could put on the game of the year and are two of the top frontrunners to meet in the NFC Championship game alongside the Eagles.

Ultimately, I went with the niners being able to cover the 3.5 points. Homefield advantage certainly plays a role, but there are other deciding factors as well.

(Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST, NBC)

I want to start previewing these teams by noting San Francisco are riding an 11 game winning streak with Brock Purdy at signal caller. In the 15 games they’ve had Christian McCaffrey, their only loss was in his debut against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs.

It’s no surprise to see the 49ers third in the NFL in points per game, and second in both yards per game and per play. Their +67 point differential makes sense considering the likes of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk all flank McCaffrey.

McCaffrey has a serious case to be the league’s MVP and is my frontrunner through four weeks. He’s managed a big workload fantastically well despite an offensive line that’s not the most talented.

Kyle Shanahan’s scheme has masterfully masked the offensive line’s deficiencies with Purdy being sacked just seven times and McCaffrey running for 5.7 yards per attempt.

Their defense ranks third in points allowed, but admittedly hasn’t yet found their full rhythm with sacks (22nd in the league) or turnovers (Tied for 12th most). That said, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and company can turn up the heat at any moment.

On the flip side, Dallas manhandled inferior Jets, Giants, and Patriots teams. Between those three games, they outscored their opponents 108-13. But they fumbled the bag against the Cardinals in Week 3 with a stunning 28-16 loss.

That game saw Arizona run for 222 yards, which accounts for half the yardage Dallas has given up on the year. Whether Dallas can contain McCaffrey is likely the biggest single deciding factor in this game.

Of course, the x-factor that is Micah Parsons will make his name known in this game. But Parsons admittedly- isn’t coming into this game at 100% health and has been more quiet the last two weeks.

Dallas still ranks top ten in sack despite Parsons being more quiet. But Dallas’ cornerback room minus Trevon Diggs will face their biggest test of the year with the bag of riches San Francisco has at the skill-position.

As for Dallas’ offense, they’ve leaned heavily into the ground game with the seventh most rushing yards per game. Dak Prescott has been less turnover prone in his new scheme and is averaging a career high in completion percentage.

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Since the 49ers acquired McCaffrey, they’ve had what I believe is the best roster in the NFL. Dallas can be in the conversation for having the best roster, but there’s no team with the star power across the board quite like the niners.

This game could very well be lower scoring due to both teams’ commitments to rushing the ball. Dallas having their starting five offensive linemen playing together for the first time since 2021 will be massive for them and possible reinforce this.

Both these teams rank in the top five of rushing attempts per game and have backups they aren’t afraid to give touches to help give their bell-cows a breather.

I see this game being a one possession game when it’s all said and done. Their last two meetings finished with a touchdown differential in San Francisco’s favor, and I think history will repeat itself.

Dallas could keep the game closer than four points if Prescott and the passing game get unleashed. But if I had to choose any team on a weekly basis to come out the gates at full strength with no stumbles whatsoever, it’d be the 49ers, especially at home.

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