Back the Packers moneyline in an upset over division rival Detroit Lions on TNF

The Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions in a Thursday Night Football matchup pitting two 2-1 division rivals against one another. This game is as tightly projected as any of the Week 4 slate.

BetMGM has this game at a 1.5 point spread in favor of the visiting Lions. Their moneyline price is -125 in a game with a 46 point totals market. Green Bay are +105 underdogs as they look to snap a three-game losing streak to Detroit.

I like the Packers’ odds of winning this game and stunning the Lions, with Jordan Love and Green Bay’s early season adversity being a big reason for this.

(8:20 p.m. ET, Thursday, Amazon Prime Video)

For starters, I took a look at the history of this rivalry the last few years. Each team has taken turns having a stretch of wins over the other. Detroit has won the last three and Green Bay won the five prior meetings.

But those games came with different quarterbacks, as Jordan Love and Jared Goff are the new faces of this rivalry. Both quarterbacks have been impressive in their own ways through three weeks.

While Love’s completion percentage needs work, he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Packers’ first two wins. After a miserable first three quarters in Week 3, Love led the Packers from a 17-0 deficit to win 18-17.

Love has done this without Christian Watson for all three games, as well as without Aaron Jones and David Bakhtiari the last two. Those absences have forced him to rapidly develop chemistry with Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave, and Jayden Reed, which could pay dividends later in the season.

» READ MORE: Bet on Shane Lowry, Justin Thomas to have big weekends at 2023 Ryder Cup

As for Goff, it’s been another quietly efficient year for him. He has a QBR of 101.6 with a near 70% completion percentage. His connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to be solid, and he’s developed better chemistry with the likes of Josh Reynolds, Sam LaPorta, and Kalif Raymond.

These teams’ defenses are similar in statistical categories, as the difference in their points allowed per game is just .3. Both defenses rank in the top 15 in yards allowed per game, and Green Bay has just one more sack on the season than Detroit.

With these defenses being built similarly with hard hitting and physical defensive lines, the team that will run the ball better could be the one that wins this game. In that category, Detroit leads on the season but in part due to Jones being absent in Weeks 2 and 3 for Green Bay.

These rivals are as closely matched as any two teams in the league. When healthy, their team makeups on the field are very similar which can contribute to a close game. There’s a reason the spread for this game is just 1.5 points.

A big reason I side with the Packers in this game is them getting Jones and Watson back. While we’ve seen Green Bay’s passing offense hold its own without Watson, there’s no doubt that getting him back will provide a spark.

Jones is the biggest difference maker. He’s a lot like Jahmyr Gibbs for the Lions who’s a speedy, shifty, and great pass catching back. For his career, Jones averages 5.1 yards per tote and 7.9 receiving yards per reception.

The Lions offensive line also enters this game banged up. Three of their five starters were questionable entering the week. Detroit’s pass rush is also a concern for me, as they haven’t registered the sacks expected of a team led by Aidan Hutchinson.

Regardless if who wins this game and by how many, it has all the makings of a hard hitting and physical affair that provides a lot of entertainment to viewers.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.