Back the Packers to upset the Raiders on Monday Night Football

Week 5 of Monday Night Football sees the Las Vegas Raiders host the Green Bay Packers in a game that confuses me when looking at the oddsmakers. Sportsbooks have the Raiders as consensus favorites, with BetMGM having the Packers at +110 to win.

I’ll acknowledge the Packers aren’t the same team of old from the Aaron Rodgers era. They’re 2-2 and have had ups and downs while dealing with Jordan Love going through some growing pains in his first year as a starter and a hefty number of injuries.

But the Raiders are 1-3 and have yet to score more than 18 points in a game. While you can chalk some of that up to a couple of tough matchups against the Bills and Chargers, there’s no reason the Raiders should be favorited in my opinion.

(Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST, ESPN)

Let’s start with the favorited Raiders, who could be getting a slight not due to being at home. The central storyline of the game is Davante Adams playing his first game against his old team. Adams has produced 397 yards and three touchdowns on 33 catches in 2023.

But the 30-year-old injured his shoulder last week and didn’t practice in-between then and now. Even though Adams is one of the biggest difference makers in the league, he won’t be at 100% going up against one of the NFL’s lockdown cornerbacks in Jaire Alexander.

If Adams isn’t carrying the receiving load, Las Vegas’ second and third leading pass catchers are Jakobi Myers and Josh Jacobs. While I like Myers to potentially score a touchdown in this game, Jacobs’ lack of production has been a big hindrance on the year.

Jacobs has been boom or bust his entire career, but this year has been bust. He averages just 2.7 yards per carry and hasn’t gotten help from his offensive line. This said, Green Bay ranks second to last in run defense, giving Jacobs a good chance at a bounce back game.

On the flip side, Las Vegas doesn’t have a good run defense either (25th), giving Aaron Jones a chance to bounce back for Green Bay. Jones has played just two games this year and hasn’t quite looked his usual self, but injuries have played a role in that.

Injuries have been the story for the Packers, as David Bakhtiari played just one game before his season ended, while Jones, Alexander, Christian Watson, Elgton Jenkins, and De’Vondre Campbell have all missed considerable time.

Jones, Alexander, Watson, and Jenkins will return and look to aid their young quarterback whose had ups and downs. Love threw six touchdowns and no interceptions in his first two games, but has two touchdowns to three interceptions in his last two.

Green Bay ranks tenth in points per game despite everything, although they’re just 29th in overall yards per game. However, they rank tenth in third down conversion percentage and are one of the best at taking care of the football.

One final note on each of these teams is they rank among the most penalized teams in the NFL, which could play a role in deciding the outcome of this game.

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The Raiders have been one of the most perplexing teams in the NFL the last few years, which is why I don’t see how they’re favorites to win. Green Bay is in a time of transition at quarterback, but they’ve been as stable a franchise and roster as there is for a long time.

Josh McDaniels is as conservative a coach as they come who struggles immensely at time management. While Matt LaFleur has made some errors in his career, his coaching philosophy is always to win, not to not lose like McDaniels does.

The Packers’ statistics might not wow you, but this is a complete roster that has a lot going for them. If they can stay healthy and build continuity, this is a team that could be in the wild card hunt all year.

But the Raiders have Adams, Maxx Crosby, Jacobs, and a whole bunch of average at best players all across the rest of their team. While Garoppolo is one of the winningest quarterbacks in recent times, I don’t think this situation will maximize him.

All of this being said is why I see the Packers pulling off the road victory and spoiling Adams’ much-anticipated game against his old team.

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